It's been a mediocre week for NeuroPace, Inc.( NASDAQ:NPCE ) shareholders, with the stock dropping 13% to US$15.81 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$22m were in line with expectations, although statutory losses per share were US$0.20, some 16% smaller than was expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on NeuroPace after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, NeuroPace's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$99.7m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$0.65 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$98.9m and US$0.64 per share in losses.
Check out our latest analysis for NeuroPace
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$19.88, suggesting that the business - losses and all - is executing in line with estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on NeuroPace, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$22.00 and the most bearish at US$15.80 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that NeuroPace's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.2% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 20% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 8.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than NeuroPace.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for NeuroPace going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for NeuroPace that you need to take into consideration.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch
with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature.
We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.
It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
