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If you are wondering whether KONE Oyj at €54.46 is a bargain or fully priced, it helps to step back and look at the numbers that actually drive value.
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The share price has seen mixed returns, with a 4.6% decline over the last week and a 1.7% decline over the last month, while the 1 year return is 3.0% and the 3 year return is 15.8% compared with a 5 year return of a 1.8% decline.
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Recent news around KONE often focuses on its role in the global elevators and escalators market and how investors interpret long term demand for large infrastructure and building projects. This kind of context can influence whether the recent share price moves are seen as short term noise or part of a bigger story.
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Right now KONE Oyj has a valuation score of 0/6. It can be useful to compare different valuation approaches and then look at an even richer way to think about value that will be covered at the end of this article.
KONE Oyj scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown .
Approach 1: KONE Oyj Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis
A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company could be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to the present using a required rate of return.
For KONE Oyj, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach built on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is €1,128.59m. Analyst and extrapolated estimates point to projected free cash flow of €1,496m in 2030, with intermediate annual projections between 2026 and 2035 ranging from about €1,233.40m to €1,459.52m, all expressed in € and adjusted to present value within the model.
Putting these projections together, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of €47.26 per share for KONE Oyj. At the current share price of €54.46, this output from the model suggests the stock is about 15.2% overvalued based solely on this cash flow driven view.
Result: OVERVALUED
Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests KONE Oyj may be overvalued by 15.2%. Discover 236 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.
Approach 2: KONE Oyj Price vs Earnings
For a profitable company like KONE Oyj, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about value because it links what you pay for each share to the earnings that business is currently generating. Investors typically accept a higher or lower P/E depending on what they expect for earnings growth and how much risk they see in the business and sector, so there is no single "right" number in isolation.
KONE Oyj currently trades on a P/E of 28.80x. This sits above the Machinery industry average of 25.49x and the peer group average of 20.36x. Simply Wall St's "Fair Ratio" for KONE Oyj is 25.12x, which is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E could be given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, size, industry and company specific risks. Because it blends these elements, the Fair Ratio can be more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry, which may have different growth profiles and risk levels.
Comparing the Fair Ratio of 25.12x with the current P/E of 28.80x suggests KONE Oyj is trading above this model based estimate.
Result: OVERVALUED
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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your KONE Oyj Narrative
Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to think about value. On Simply Wall St this comes through Narratives, where you set out a clear story for KONE Oyj, including your assumptions for future revenue, earnings, margins and a fair value. The platform links that story to a full forecast so you can see whether your Fair Value suggests the current price is high or low. You can track how that relationship changes as new information such as news or earnings updates feed in, and compare different viewpoints side by side. For example, one investor might lean toward a more optimistic KONE Oyj Narrative built around a fair value close to €78.0 per share, while another might prefer a cautious view closer to €45.0. Both of these live in the Community page, where Narratives are easy to create, edit and monitor over time as your view evolves.
For KONE Oyj however we'll make it really easy for you with previews of two leading KONE Oyj Narratives:
🐂 KONE Oyj Bull Case
Fair value in this bullish narrative: €61.80
Implied pricing gap to that fair value at the last close of €54.46: about 11.9% below the narrative fair value.
Analyst revenue growth assumption used in this narrative: 5.23% a year.
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The focus on modernization, services and digital solutions is expected to tilt the mix toward higher margin, recurring revenue tied to energy efficiency and smart building demand.
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Broader exposure across Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Africa and North America alongside cost efficiency programs is used to support the case for structural margin improvement.
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The analyst consensus target of €61.80, framed by a range from €45.00 to €78.00, assumes higher earnings, slightly higher margins and a 28.4x P/E by 2029, with the current price sitting close to that central view.
🐻 KONE Oyj Bear Case
Fair value in this bearish narrative: €45.00
Implied pricing gap to that fair value at the last close of €54.46: about 21.0% above the narrative fair value.
Revenue growth assumption used in this narrative: 3.78% a year.
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High exposure to China, where construction activity and pricing are under pressure, is central to concerns around revenue resilience and margin pressure.
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Rising local competition, regulatory demands, supply chain complexity and sustainability requirements are used to justify lower assumed P/E multiples and tighter margin expectations.
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The bearish fair value of €45.00, set well below the €57.00 reference price in that model, reflects the view that even with earnings growth and margin gains, the current P/E leaves limited room if delivery falls short.
If you want to see how other investors join the dots between these kinds of numbers and their own story for the company, it is worth reading the full community narratives for KONE Oyj and comparing them with your own expectations for growth, margins and valuation over the long run.
Curious how numbers become stories that shape markets? Explore Community Narratives
Do you think there's more to the story for KONE Oyj? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include KNEBV.HE .
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