TRX Gold (TSX:TRX) Is Up 11.4% After Boosting Buckreef Recoveries And Mill Capacity Plans – Has The Bull Case Changed?

• TRX Gold recently reported that its Buckreef Gold project achieved recovery rates of 89%-92% and outlined plans to expand and upgrade processing capacity with a new semi-autogenous grind/ball mill circuit capable of handling over 3,500 tonnes per day alongside the existing plant.

• These operational gains, paired with record second-quarter fiscal 2026 gold production and revenue, highlight how process improvements can directly reinforce the company's core mining business.

• We'll now consider how the higher recovery rates at Buckreef may influence TRX Gold's investment narrative and longer-term project positioning.

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What Is TRX Gold's Investment Narrative?

To own TRX Gold, you need to believe that Buckreef can keep scaling from a single-asset producer into a larger, more efficient mine while steadily improving its balance sheet. The latest recovery rates of 89% to 92% and the plan for a new 3,500‑tonne‑per‑day SAG/ball mill circuit feed directly into the near‑term catalysts around throughput growth and cost discipline, and help explain why revenue has risen even as the company remains loss‑making. That said, the sharp pullback over the past three months suggests the market is still weighing execution risk on the US$45 million to US$50 million expansion, ongoing dilution and reliance on a single project in Tanzania. This news improves the operational story, but it does not remove those risks.

However, investors also need to weigh the funding and single‑asset risks this expansion brings.TRX Gold's shares have been on the rise but are still potentially undervalued. Find out how large the opportunity might be .

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$0.59 to over US$16 per share, reflecting very different views of TRX Gold's upside. Set against Buckreef's improving recoveries and aggressive expansion schedule, this spread underlines how differently people are assessing execution risk and future cash generation. You are seeing a wide spectrum of expectations, so it makes sense to compare several of these perspectives before forming your own view.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on TRX Gold - why the stock might be worth over 10x more than the current price!