This article first appeared on GuruFocus .
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Group EBITDA:Increased to EUR193.9 million for FY 2025/2026; Q4 EBITDA rose to EUR88.2 million from EUR15.4 million in Q1.
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Operating Cash Flow:Increased to EUR164.6 million.
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Free Cash Flow:Reached EUR78 million despite continued investments.
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Net Debt:Declined substantially to EUR91.5 million.
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Equity Ratio:Strengthened to 59.7%.
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ROCE:Recovered to around 12%.
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CO2 Handprint:Increased to a record 4.7 million tonnes.
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Biodiesel Production Volumes:Increased to 172,000 tonnes in Q4 from 145,000 tonnes in Q3.
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Biodiesel Revenue:Rose to EUR280 million in Q4 from EUR202 million in Q3.
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Biodiesel EBITDA:Increased to EUR32 million in Q4 from EUR18 million in Q3.
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Biomethane Production:Reached a record level of more than 370 gigawatt hours.
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Bioethanol/Biomethane Revenue:Increased to EUR243 million in Q4 from EUR236 million in Q3.
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Bioethanol/Biomethane EBITDA:Increased to EUR55 million in Q4 from EUR34 million in Q3; prior year Q4 was a loss of EUR26 million.
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GHG Quota Impairment Reversal:Contributed approximately EUR19 million to Q4 gross margin.
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FY 2026/2027 Group EBITDA Outlook:Expected to increase to between EUR210 million and EUR250 million.
Release Date: September 24, 2026
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
Positive Points
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Verbio SE ( VBVBF ) achieved record production levels in biodiesel, bioethanol, and biomethane, with significant growth in biomethane output.
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EBITDA increased to EUR193.9 million, driven by improved market conditions, higher utilization rates, and reversal of impairments.
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Operating cash flow rose to EUR164.6 million, and free cash flow reached EUR78 million, despite continued investments.
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Net debt declined substantially to EUR91.5 million, and equity ratio strengthened to 59.7%, with ROCE recovering to around 12%.
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Regulatory environment improved with RED III implementation, eliminating double counting and supporting higher demand for physical biofuels.
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Guidance for FY2026/2027 expects group EBITDA to increase to EUR210-250 million, driven by Bioethanol/Biomethane segment and volume growth.
Negative Points
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Biodiesel segment expected to contribute lower in FY2026/2027 due to market spreads below prior year and uncertainty around anti-fraud measures.
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Greenhouse gas quota business remains the largest swing factor with external pricing uncertainty, potentially impacting results.
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High tax rate of over 46% due to inability to offset losses in one country against profits in another, with no clear plan to reduce it.
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Uncertainty regarding surplus quotas from previous years returning to the market, which could affect quota prices and earnings.
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45Z tax credits in the US not yet reflected in guidance, as the model does not fully capture Verbio SE ( VBVBF )'s carbon intensity strategy.
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Biodiesel margins face pressure from rising feedstock prices and potential seasonality, with a conservative outlook for the segment.
Q & A Highlights
Q: Jorge Gonzales of NuWays AG asked how much worse biodiesel margins are expected to be in FY2026/2027 versus FY2025/2026, and whether the weak Q4 margins were partly seasonal with a pickup expected during the year. A: CEO Claus Sauter said Verbio is taking a deliberately conservative stance on biodiesel margins, planning somewhat lower than the past financial year, partly because stronger feedstock (rapeseed oil) prices later in the year could pressure margins. He noted the first quarter has started slightly better than expected, so there may be room for EBITDA improvement.
Q: Manuela Stuerzer of Deutsche Bank asked whether the FY2026/2027 guidance includes any earnings contribution from the ethenolysis (specialty chemicals) plant, and how BioLNG demand is expected to develop in heavy-duty transport and maritime applications. A: CEO Claus Sauter said the ethenolysis start-up costs and contribution are reflected in planning, but it is a completely new market segment that will take years to develop and represents additional optionality rather than a core guidance driver. On BioLNG, he said high diesel prices are pushing haulers toward CNG/LNG trucks, 100% of transport LNG/CNG in Germany is already bio-based, and Verbio is now the largest biomethane producer and trader in Germany, expecting significantly rising demand.
Q: A chatbox participant asked what key assumptions underpin the EUR210 million to EUR250 million FY2026/2027 EBITDA guidance, and what would need to happen to land at the lower versus the upper end. A: CFO Olaf Troeber said the increase in group EBITDA is primarily volume-driven, supported by greenhouse gas earnings, while biodiesel margin assumptions remain prudent. The largest swing factor between the low and high end of the range is the greenhouse gas quota business, with quota pricing the most significant external uncertainty and potential to push results toward the higher end.
Q: Brad Gibbs asked whether Verbio can quantify Nevada's ability to capture 45Z tax credits available to ethanol in the US, noting some producers demonstrate $0.10 to $0.20 per gallon, and whether this is included in guidance. A: CEO Claus Sauter said no 45Z benefit is currently reflected in planning because Verbio's combined bioethanol and renewable natural gas concept is new in the US and final rules were only issued about four weeks ago. He said that by replacing natural gas with biogas and electricity with renewable energy certificates, Verbio has the potential to reach a carbon intensity near zero, worth up to $1 per gallon of ethanol, though the company still needs to work with the regulator to have its model fully recognized. He called 45Z a significant future optionality for the P&L.
Q: Jorge Gonzales asked about greenhouse gas (GHG) quota price levels for Germany, referencing around EUR500 per tonne in the presentation, and whether levels are still there for 2027. A: CEO Claus Sauter confirmed prices for the current financial year are still above EUR500 per tonne, while for calendar year 2027 they are approximately EUR420 to EUR440 per tonne, and Verbio planned its guidance around that observable market range.
Q: Manuela Stuerzer asked for the earnings sensitivity to current very high diesel prices and how the price assumptions embedded in guidance compare with current spot prices. A: CFO Olaf Troeber said current spot prices are well above the average margins of recent years, so Verbio simply rolled forward the average biodiesel spreads achieved in the last financial year with a slightly negative, more prudent stance. CEO Claus Sauter added that fossil diesel prices are not the key driver; the main driver for next year is the rising compliance obligation from 12% to 17.5% and the removal of double counting, which nearly doubles demand for molecules in 2027 versus 2025.
Q: A follow-up asked how much of the expected full-year 2026/2027 quota volume is already contracted versus open, and for open 2027 volumes, whether pricing references the prompt 2026 vintage or 2027 forwards. A: CFO Olaf Troeber said Verbio has sold most of the 2026 quota and will sell 2027 volumes at market prices, which he indicated are somewhere between EUR420 and EUR440 per tonne of CO2.
Q: Jorge Gonzales asked whether Verbio would consider anticipating sales of the 2024 quotas if prices move in the right direction, or whether it is too early. A: CEO Claus Sauter explained it is not simply about selling the quota but realizing the additional margin: Verbio can sell today and transfer the quota in March next year, with the full profit only achieved in Q3 because the quota can only be activated to production costs now, while the additional margin is locked in at transfer.
Q: Alex Kozak asked how much hedging Verbio is doing on biodiesel and whether the company is capturing the tailwinds from extremely high biodiesel prices or is hedged out. A: CEO Claus Sauter declined to disclose the hedging strategy, stating only that Verbio hedges when necessary and when it makes sense, and does not hedge when its market expectation differs.
Q: Reni Luca asked whether Verbio plans to change its financial year to the calendar year. A: CEO Claus Sauter said the topic is under discussion but no decision has been made. The July-to-June financial year originally reflected heavy exposure to agricultural feedstock and the summer harvest, an exposure that is no longer significant. He described it as a strategic decision that would not impact profitability.
Q: A participant asked whether any Bitterfeld EBITDA is included in the EUR210 million to EUR250 million guidance range and what production volume is assumed for FY2026/2027 against the 60,000-tonne capacity. A: CEO Claus Sauter said the specialty chemicals plant provides additional opportunities and optionality; if higher chemical margins can be achieved, Verbio will pursue them. He stressed it is a strategic investment to move rapeseed oil molecules into new applications such as surfactants, lubricants and plastics base components, and that if the ramp-up does not progress as expected, it will have no impact on guidance.
Q: A participant asked whether investments in South Bend will contribute to decreasing the tax rate in the current year, and another asked about the reasons for the high tax rate above 50% and plans
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
