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Adamas Trust now carries a refreshed fair value estimate of US$11.42, up from US$11.00, as analysts fine tune their assumptions for the stock. That modest shift lines up with recent Street debate, where more optimistic voices point to book value trends, return on equity potential, and a higher agency mix, while cautious analysts focus on execution risk and how much upside is already in the targets. As you read on, you will see how these competing views shape the evolving Adamas Trust story and what to watch next.
What Wall Street Has Been Saying
🐂 Bullish Takeaways
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B. Riley resumed coverage on Adamas Trust with a Buy rating and a US$9 price target, highlighting that a higher allocation to agency assets could support a premium P/B multiple versus credit and hybrid peers.
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Keefe Bruyette raised its price target to US$9 from US$8.25 and points to book value and run rate ROE potential as key supports for that valuation. This aligns with the recent uplift in the refreshed fair value estimate.
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Bullish analysts generally see the tighter focus on agency exposure as a cleaner, more transparent earnings stream. They note that this approach can help support more stable ROE over time.
🐻 Bearish Takeaways
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The Market Perform rating at Keefe Bruyette signals that, in the firm's view, a US$9 target already captures a good portion of the perceived upside. This can limit room for multiple expansion if execution falls short.
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Cautious voices remain focused on execution risk around the portfolio shift and the challenge of consistently converting book value and ROE potential into realized returns for shareholders.
Do your thoughts align with the Bull or Bear Analysts? Perhaps you think there's more to the story. Head to the Simply Wall St Community to discover more perspectives!
We've flagged 3 risks for Adamas Trust. See which could impact your investment.
What's in the News
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From October 1, 2025 to December 31, 2025, Adamas Trust reported no share repurchases, with 0 shares bought for US$0 million under its existing buyback program.
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Since the buyback was announced on February 17, 2022, the company has repurchased 18,386,012 shares, representing 19.6% of its shares, for a total of US$57.96 million.
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On February 16, 2026, Adamas Trust announced a change to its buyback plan, shortening the program duration to March 31, 2027.
How This Changes the Fair Value For Adamas Trust
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Fair value is now set at US$11.42, compared with the prior US$11.00.
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Revenue growth is now modeled as a 22.09% decline, versus the earlier 7.22% growth assumption.
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Net profit margin is now 43.66%, compared with the previous 36.40% assumption.
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Future P/E is now 22.64x, compared with the earlier 14.33x.
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The discount rate is now 12.33%, compared with the prior 12.5% assumption.
Never Miss an Update: Follow The Narrative
Narratives connect Adamas Trust's business story to the assumptions behind earnings forecasts and fair value estimates, updating as new data and research come through. They help you see how catalysts and risks link back to the numbers you are watching.
Head over to the Simply Wall St Community and follow the Narrative on Adamas Trust to stay up to date on:
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How direct loan origination, through the Constructive platform, and portfolio diversification across single family and multi family rental assets feed into revenue stability and fee income potential.
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Why a focus on business purpose rental loans and Agency RMBS, paired with improved liquidity and lower financing costs, is central to the earnings and margin outlook tied to rental and affordable housing demand.
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Which pressures around higher leverage, book value declines, rising competition in business purpose lending, and increased operating costs could challenge the long term return profile if conditions do not line up with analyst assumptions.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ADAM .
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
