Economist and crypto analyst Alex Krüger has issued a fresh warning, saying the U.S. economy is heading into a downturn — and fast.
Taking to social platform X on May 1, Krüger wrote, "The US economy is in the very early stages of a severe deceleration (and potential recession)." He believes the economic slowdown will start showing up in the data by July, adding that he's de-risking his portfolio in anticipation.
Despite his cautious outlook, Krüger remains bullish on Bitcoin (BTC), calling it his preferred upside investment. He explained why BTC stands out in this uncertain environment.
"Granted, I am biased, but do think that it has started to trade as a risk/gold hybrid (still more weighted towards risk) and therefore it may provide a very rare 'tails I win, heads I win as well' risk profile. The jury is still out."
Krüger noted the unpredictable direction of the markets heading into the second half of the year. He pointed out that Trump's economic policies could swing wildly in either direction — from more tax cuts to increased volatility — which introduces uncertainty.
"Mid-term, I do not know if the second half of the year will be a raging bull market or a crash and burn 2008-style market. Both are ironically possible."
He emphasized that Trump's administration has introduced "a massive left tail that would normally not exist," warning that traders should prepare for bigger risks than usual.
Krüger on April 2 warned that Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs could lead to a sudden market crash.
Krüger said the April 2 announcement is "10x more important than any FOMC meeting" and could cause markets to "crash another 10% to 15%." "Either way, you all want to be prepared and ready to act on Liberation Day," he added.
As for altcoins, Krüger doesn't see much reason to chase them now.
"There is zero reason to FOMO in a Trump 2.0 world. There will be dips. Many dips."
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $96,676.62, up 2.5% in the past 24 hours, while the broader crypto market cap is sitting above $3.1 trillion. Ethereum is up to $1,852.95, and meme coin Dogecoin rose 5.2% to $0.1812.
