Analysts have warned that the federal debt of the United States could reshape global markets in the next decade.
According to new Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections, the U.S national debt is on track to hit $64 trillion by 2036.
Related: U.S. debt worries sends crypto stocks crashing
$64 trillion becomes the base case
Fresh estimates show federal debt is set to surge by roughly $2.4 trillion per year over the next 10 years.
If current assumptions hold, total debt will double from 2023 levels and triple compared to 2018, before the pandemic-era stimulus wave transformed fiscal policy.
Under the new outlook, annual interest payments alone are expected to more than double to $2.1 trillion over the next decade. That projection assumes no major recession during the period. This is a best-case scenario that leaves little room for economic shocks.
The scale is staggering. Debt growth at this pace would push U.S. fiscal obligations to record highs, while interest costs increasingly crowd out discretionary spending.
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Why crypto investors are paying attention
For Bitcoin (BTC) advocates, the debt forecast feeds directly into the "hard money" thesis.
The hard money thesis argues that assets with fixed or scarce supply, like gold or Bitcoin, better preserve purchasing power over time because they cannot be easily inflated or debased by governments or central banks through excessive money creation.
Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins stands in contrast to sovereign fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar that can expand along with deficits.
Rising federal debt, paired with potentially higher money supply over time, strengthens the argument that scarce digital assets could act as a hedge against long-term fiat debasement.
If debt servicing costs accelerate further, policymakers may face difficult trade-offs: tolerate higher inflation, cut spending or rely on liquidity-support measures.
Historically, risk assets, including crypto, have benefited during periods of abundant liquidity and negative real yields.
For instance, during 2020 and 2021, the Federal Reserve flooded financial markets with liquidity. It slashed interest rates to near zero and unleashed trillions of dollars in stimulus and quantitative easing.
At the same time, real yields, or Treasury yields adjusted for inflation, turned negative, making traditional safe-haven assets less attractive.
The impact was seen on crypto's popularity.
Bitcoin surged from around $5,000 in March 2020 to nearly $60,000 in November 2021. Tech stocks and other growth equities hit record highs. Venture funding accelerated, and speculative assets across the board also exploded.
However, there is also a short-term counterweight. Elevated debt levels may also mean higher rates for a longer period of time, which can pressure speculative assets. If Treasury issuance floods markets and yields remain attractive, capital could rotate away from high-volatility assets like crypto to safer investment assets.
Moreover, Bitcoin has also started behaving more like a high-liquidity-driven speculative financial instrument, as pointed out by Stifel's Barry Bannister. Hence, its narrative as a resistant "digital gold" is no longer holding.
Related: Ray Dalio issues stark warning on the global order
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Feb 18, 2026, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
