Michael Terpin has a new prediction about where Bitcoin (BTC) is heading.
The veteran investor dubbed the "Godfather of crypto" says Bitcoin has not yet found its cycle bottom, and it is actively positioning for another leg lower.
Terpin is one of the earliest commentators on Bitcoin and crypto. He is the CEO of Transform Ventures. He was the first crypto investor to relocate to Puerto Rico under its investor tax decree.
Related: Cathie Wood buys popular crypto stock despite revenue miss
Bitcoin to drop lower
Speaking at Consensus Miami, Terpin said he puts the odds of the bottom already being in at only 40%, meaning he believes there is a 60% chance the market still has further to fall.
"We think we're pretty confident about 2-to-1 odds that we are going lower,"Terpin said.
He adds anything he sells in the $80,000 range, he expects to buy back somewhere between $60,000 and $50,000.
However, the floor estimate has shifted.
Terpin said he no longer expects Bitcoin to revisit the $40,000 level, crediting sustained buying from Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), formerly MicroStrategy, and the spot Bitcoin ETF s with providing a structural cushion that has raised the likely bottom.
Terpin's outlook is grounded in his "Four Seasons" cycle model, which tracks diminishing returns and diminishing losses across each halving cycle.
He noted that this cycle's peak return was barely 2X, the lowest yet, against his expectation of 3X.
On the downside, he had expected a 66% drawdown from the $126,000 high but said the market has so far only fallen around 54%.
That implies a target range of roughly $48,000 to $57,000. The key condition is that Bitcoin needs to break back below the $60,000 February low and touch the 200-day exponential moving average.
"As long as it goes below that 60K mark in February and touches the 200 EMA, then I feel like the cycle is still intact,"Terpin said.
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Bitcoin so far
Bitcoin is trading around $80,676 on May 13, down from a Monday high of $82,145.
Macro headwinds are weighing on sentiment. April's CPI came in hot at 3.8%, driven by Iran war-related energy costs. While Jerome Powell's Fed tenure ends May 15, Kevin Warsh is expected to take over.
Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $124,000 in October 2025 and has since fallen roughly 37%.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 49, suggesting retail has not yet piled in.
Related: Bitcoin lagging gold is 'exciting,' says Anchorage head of research
This story was originally published by TheStreet on May 12, 2026, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
