Why this Thai Airways delivery matters for AerCap
AerCap Holdings (NYSE:AER) recently delivered the first of ten Airbus A321neo aircraft to Thai Airways International, with the remaining jets scheduled through 2028. This puts a fresh client transaction in focus for shareholders.
This kind of multi year delivery stream can shape how investors think about AerCap's lease pipeline, orderbook visibility and potential cash flow timing, especially when combined with its upcoming fourth quarter 2025 earnings update in February.
See our latest analysis for AerCap Holdings.
The Thai Airways delivery comes at a time when momentum in AerCap's shares has been firm, with a 21.54% 90 day share price return and a very strong 5 year total shareholder return of 225.18% pointing to solid longer term compounding.
If this aircraft deal has you thinking about where else capital is moving, it could be a good moment to scan aerospace and defense stocks for other aviation related ideas.
With AerCap up 57.10% over the past year and trading just below an average analyst price target of US$149.22, the key question now is whether there is still a buying opportunity or if the market is already pricing in future growth.
Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 80% Undervalued
Compared with the last close at US$148.09, the most followed narrative pegs AerCap's fair value near US$149.22, framing a modest gap that rests on specific long term assumptions.
Prudent capital allocation, supported by a strong balance sheet and ongoing deleveraging, positions AerCap to capture opportunities in sale-leasebacks and organic fleet growth as OEM deliveries ramp up. This is expected to drive revenue and earnings upside while containing interest expense.
Curious what kind of revenue path, margin reset, and future earnings multiple need to line up to justify that fair value? The full narrative spells out those moving parts in detail, including how cash returns to shareholders fit into the equation.
Result: Fair Value of $149.22 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the story could shift if aircraft supply loosens and lease rates come under pressure, or if heavier capital deployment leaves AerCap more exposed to funding costs.
Find out about the key risks to this AerCap Holdings narrative.
Build Your Own AerCap Holdings Narrative
If you look at the numbers and reach a different conclusion, or simply want to rely on your own work, you can build a tailored view in just a few minutes, Do it your way .
A great starting point for your AerCap Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include AER .
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