It's been a pretty great week for Nufarm Limited( ASX:NUF ) shareholders, with its shares surging 15% to AU$2.56 in the week since its latest annual results. It was an okay report, and revenues came in at AU$3.4b, approximately in line with analyst estimates leading up to the results announcement. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Nufarm after the latest results.
Following the latest results, Nufarm's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of AU$3.67b in 2026. This would be an okay 6.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Nufarm is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of AU$0.093 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$3.67b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.22 in 2026. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the pretty serious reduction to new EPS forecasts.
Check out our latest analysis for Nufarm
The consensus price target held steady at AU$3.06, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Nufarm analyst has a price target of AU$4.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$2.22. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Nufarm's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 6.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.3% p.a. over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 6.0% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Nufarm is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Nufarm. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Nufarm. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Nufarm analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see whether Nufarm is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature.
We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.
It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
