It's been a pretty great week for Origin Energy Limited( ASX:ORG ) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to AU$12.08 in the week since its latest half-year results. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at AU$8.0b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at AU$0.32 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Origin Energy's nine analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be AU$16.4b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to expand 12% to AU$0.67. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of AU$16.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of AU$0.65 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
Check out our latest analysis for Origin Energy
The consensus price target was unchanged at AU$11.99, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Origin Energy analyst has a price target of AU$14.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at AU$10.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.8% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.8% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 5.3% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Origin Energy is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Origin Energy's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at AU$11.99, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Origin Energy. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Origin Energy going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Origin Energy that you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature.
We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.
It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
