BlackRock CEO Larry Fink sees two extreme possibilities emerging from the current U.S.-Israel war with Iran.
Speaking on the BBC's "Big Boss Interview" podcast on March 25, he warned that the global economy faces either a period of growth or a severe downturn.
The deciding factor will be the future price of oil .
Fink explained that if hostilities cease but Iran stays isolated and disrupts regional trade, energy markets will suffer .
"If there is a cessation of war, and yet Iran remains a threat, a threat to trade, a threat to the Strait of Hormuz, a threat to this peaceful coexistence of the GCC region, then I would argue that we could have years of above $100 closer to $150 oil which has profound implications in the economy," Fink told the BBC .
When asked directly about the impact of oil staying at $150 a barrel, he replied, "We will have global recession." He added that this scenario would likely cause "a probably stark and steep recession."
Related: BlackRock CEO sends blunt message on markets
Historic supply disruptions
The conflict began over three weeks ago and has severely impacted the Strait of Hormuz .
This critical waterway typically handles 20% of the world's crude and liquefied natural gas supply. Following retaliatory strikes on cargo vessels, the International Energy Agency labeled the current situation the biggest-ever oil supply disruption.
Consequently, oil prices spiked as much as 60%. However, prices sank about 4% on March 25 following reports of a 15-point U.S. proposal aimed at ending the war.
If negotiations succeed and Iran accepts the deal, Fink believes oil prices could fall below pre-war levels and boost global supply.
These global tensions are currently weighing on financial markets, including cryptocurrency, because rising oil prices often drive up inflation.
Historically, high-risk assets struggle when geopolitical stress is combined with high inflation expectations.
If the conflict continue to escalate, Bitcoin's price could fall further, with even deeper losses if energy costs stay high, there is no interest rate cut, and liquidity tightens.
While strong institutional interest through ETFs briefly pushed Bitcoin to $76,000 last week, the digital asset has since lost those gains and is currently trading near $70,898.
Most popular on TheStreet Roundtable:
Push for alternative energy
Fink emphasized that expensive energy harms everyday consumers the most.
"Rising energy prices are a very regressive tax," Fink said.
"It affects the poor more than the wealthy, because it's a larger component of their pocketbook."
He advised nations to pragmatically mix traditional and renewable energy. If oil reaches $150 for several years, he expects countries will rapidly shift toward solar and wind power.
"Use what you have unquestionably, but also aggressively move towards alternative sources too," he added.
Related: Gold hits worst losing streak in over a century
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Mar 25, 2026, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
