This article first appeared on GuruFocus .
Release Date: May 11, 2026
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
Positive Points
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Empresas COPEC SA ( XSGO:COPEC ) reported an adjusted EBITDA of $880 million, marking an 11% year-on-year and 23% quarter-on-quarter increase.
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The energy division showed strong performance with an EBITDA of 571 million, driven by inventory revaluation effects and higher contributions from lubricants.
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The company is making significant progress on the SuperDO project in Brazil, with construction progress at 73% and railway progress at 16%.
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Mina Justa continues to perform well, generating an EBITDA above $200 million for the quarter, benefiting from a favorable copper pricing scenario.
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Empresas COPEC SA ( XSGO:COPEC ) maintains a well-balanced debt schedule, with net debt-to-EBITDA decreasing to 3.1, indicating strong credit metrics.
Negative Points
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The forestry division experienced a decline in EBITDA, primarily due to lower pulp prices and increased costs.
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Wood products had a weak quarter with a significant drop in EBITDA to $84 million, attributed to decreased sales volumes for solid wood.
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The market outlook remains challenging due to global volatility, including disruptions from geopolitical tensions and fluctuating energy prices.
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Fuel demand may be impacted by recent price hikes, with potential longer-term effects on customer behavior and fuel volumes.
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The company faces risks of CapEx overruns and higher production costs for the SuperDO project due to high energy prices and currency fluctuations.
Q & A Highlights
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Q: How much of the fuels earnings is attributed to inventory revaluation, and how much do you think can lead to higher margins structurally? A: Rodrigo Ruidobro, CFO, explained that the energy division's EBITDA has been trending up due to good commercial positioning and strong performance in lubricants. The first quarter is typically stronger due to seasonality. However, the recent quarter included non-recurrent effects from oil price increases affecting inventory valuations. A more recurrent figure would be closer to the first quarter of 2025, around $400 million. The expected annual EBITDA for the energy division is between $1.2 and $1.4 billion.
Q: Would COPEC be willing to support Arauco beyond the $450 million that is committed? What is the limit here and what's needed to support the investment grade at Arauco? A: Rodrigo Ruidobro, CFO, stated that COPEC has a disciplined approach to capital allocation, emphasizing reasonable leverage levels. The company is committed to maintaining investment-grade metrics. COPEC has already scheduled the remaining equity contributions to Arauco, with $200 million in June and $250 million by the end of the year. Arauco is exploring actions to improve its metrics, and any further decisions will be assessed as circumstances evolve.
Q: Considering the recent fuel price hike late in March, how has the fuel demand continued so far in the second quarter this year? A: Rodrigo Ruidobro, CFO, noted that it's too early to determine the long-term effects of the price hike on fuel demand. March and April figures were distorted due to a rush to fuel up before the price increase and logistical challenges. It is reasonable to expect a potential drop in demand if the pricing situation persists.
Q: Could you please comment on pricing trends for dissolving pulp? Prices moved to $880 per ton. Is this related to the Middle East conflict? A: Gianfranco, an executive, explained that the increase in oil prices has affected competitors in the textile industry using polyester, which has oil components. This has allowed for price increases in textile dissolving pulp, which is a good alternative. Historically, prices were around $1,000, so current prices are closer to the average.
Q: Given the changes in the outlook to global pulp markets since you started the project, what are the main concerns you are following closely? Do you anticipate risks of CapEx overruns and higher production costs given high energy prices and the strength of the Brazilian real? A: Gianfranco stated that the project is progressing well, with savings and no significant overruns. The company has a favorable derivative position on the Brazilian real, providing financial comfort. The project is advanced in physical progress, and while managing human resources is challenging, the company is focused on risk management until completion.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
