It didn't take long for oil tradersto get their answer.
A ceasefirebetween the U.S.and Iranled to a significant relief bounce in the market on April 8. The expectation is rather clear. A truce between the U.S. and Iran will immediately calm the area and reopen one of the world's most significant energy chokepoints.
That hope was already fading by April 9. Crude prices went up again, as Reuters reported, when investors recognized that the headline about the truce wasn't the true story. Instead, it was whether ships could really get through the Strait of Hormuz.
That change is important in more than just the oil market. When Hormuzslows down, traders quickly factor in the risk of supply.
Next, drivers sense it. AAAnoted that on April 9, the average price for a gallon of normal gasoline in the U.S. was $4.16. The live tracker showed the price on April 10was $4.153.
This change is what is causing oil prices to go up again. The market is no longer betting on peace. Instead, the focus is on trading when usual flows aren't happening.
"In the oil market, the immediate next steps hinge on when Strait of Hormuz trafficreturns to normal," UBS analysts said.
Looking ahead, U.S. officials are in Pakistan talking to Iranian officials about how to end the conflict, according to NBC News . People who watch the market will be genuinely interested in these events to see what happens next.
Oil traders stop trusting the ceasefire headline
The rebound in crudedoes not come as a surprise when you look at developments past the diplomacy stage.
U.S. oilmoved back near $99 a barrelon April 9, according to NBC News , as Israelis continued to pound Lebanon. Such action will give traders cause for pause.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmerand President Donald Trumpare combining their efforts to open up the Strait of Hormuzchokepoint. It's a sign that even the governments of the allies see freedom of navigation, not words, as the real test of whether this truce means anything.
More Oil and Gas:
-
The world's biggest gas field matters just as much as oil right now
-
U.S. economy will show resilience, despite rising oil prices
And right now, the logistics are not looking very bright.
Only a handful of ships have been transiting the Strait, significantly below normal levels. Iran has been directing ships through its territorial waters near Larak Island. Shipowners are dealing with military warnings, mine concerns, and the possibility of extra fees or restrictions. That is more than enough uncertainty to keep oil prices high around the world.
The physical marketis once again exhibiting alarming signs. Physical crude pricesin Europe and Africa have surged, even after futuresbriefly fell on ceasefire hopes. It means concerns are rampant regarding actual supply, not just paper barrels.
That is usually where the cleaner signal is. Futurescan celebrate a headline. Physical buyers will want to talk first about secure supply.
The rebound, therefore, is not a one-day thing. Barclayssaid that delays in restoring Hormuzflows could make its Brentforecast more likely to be wrong because inventories are already tighter than expected.
In other words, the market doesn't need a big new shock to keep prices high. It just needs the current chaos to last longer.
Gas prices are still climbing, and that is the bigger warning
Consumers have not seen much benefit from this momentary optimism.
AAA'sApril 9 update said the national average gas pricerose 8 cents from a week earlier to $4.16. That is the highest level since August 2022. On April 10, its live tracker showed that prices were still over $4.15 a gallon. That tells readers something important: retail fuel prices don't always drop right away when oil prices drop a lot for a day.
Stations still have to work through higher-cost inventory. Wholesalers need to make some value judgments regarding whether crude weaknessis a momentary phenomenon or a more permanent, stark reality.
In this case, the rise in oil prices makes the answer pretty clear. Traders don't think the disruption is over yet.
There is also a bigger picture here. Higher prices for oil and gaskeep inflation going at the same time that investors hope geopoliticswill stop becoming a market driver. The rise in oil prices, which is linked to doubts about the ceasefire, has already made the market more cautious.
This shows how quickly energy stresscan affect currencies, bonds, and risk appetite.
Key takeaways
-
U.S. crudeis back to $99 a barrel on April 9as ceasefire optimism cooled.
-
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuzremains constrained.
-
AAAsaid the national average gas price hit $4.16 on April 9, New Jersey's WRNJ noted. AAA's April 10tracker showed $4.153.
-
Barclayswarns that if Hormuzflows do not return to normal, oil prices will remain higherthan expected.
-
Gas pricesare still high, pressuring consumers and making it harder to predict inflation.
Related: Trump's Iran speech puts drivers on edge
This story was originally published by TheStreet on Apr 12, 2026, where it first appeared in the Investing section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
