Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating and $300 price target on SpaceX (SPCX), arguing that collaboration with Tesla could strengthen the space company's AI business. The target implies about 102% upside from SpaceX's September 23 close of $148.36.
The September 20 note, led by analyst Adam Jonas, did not raise the target. Morgan Stanley initiated coverage at $300 in July and reiterated that figure in August.
The bank's sum-of-the-parts model assigns $165 per share to Enterprise AI, $118 to connectivity, and $8 each to Space and X & Grok. The components total $299, with Morgan Stanley stating a rounded $300 target.
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Tesla's role in the AI thesis
Morgan Stanley said SpaceX could provide compute and Starlink connectivity, while Tesla contributes energy storage, manufacturing scale, robotics and real-world data. Tesla's Cybercabs, humanoids and other future machines could collect data across varied environments and operate as connected edge-computing nodes, the analysts said.
The note estimates SpaceX could reach 4.9 GW of compute by year-end 2027 and 15.3 GW of terrestrial compute by year-end 2031. Those figures are Morgan Stanley estimates, rather than contracted or energized capacity.
The relationship includes infrastructure and commercial ties: Morgan Stanley counted 71 distinct Tesla references in SpaceX's S-1, including 24 related to collaboration and 29 involving governance or related-party transactions. The filing describes early-stage work on the Terafab chip-manufacturing project and Macrohard agentic software platform.
Morgan Stanley also cited $506 million of Tesla Megapack purchases by xAI during 2025 and $131 million of Cybertruck purchases by SpaceX. SpaceX acquired xAI in February 2026, combining the AI developer with its compute and connectivity infrastructure.
Power availability is central to the valuation: Morgan Stanley separately estimates a 33 GW U.S. data-center power shortfall through 2028 , widening to 72 GW through 2029.
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Morgan Stanley applies a 50% discount to its Enterprise AI valuation for execution risk. Its downside cases include higher compute costs, longer time to power, weaker enterprise-AI monetization and additional funding or dilution. The firm disclosed recent investment-banking work for SpaceX and said it may seek further business from SpaceX and Tesla.
