IREN’s $363M GPU Raise, Morgan Stanley’s Bullish TeraWulf Price Target, and SK Hynix’s Earnings

Riddled with drama.Morgan Stanley thinks Terror Wolf is going to more than quadruple. It's the most bullish call for the stock that we've seen from any investment bank this year, and we are going to dive into the numbers here on this show. Also, on the episode today, we have Iron refinancing $363 million worth of GPUs. Can Iron survive Elon Musk's neo-cloud extinction event?And for our final story, the memory trade may be back as SK Heinek post record profits. And when I say record profits, I mean, they just joined Nvidia as one of the most profitable companies in tech. You're listening to Blockspace Live, hosted by Charlie Spears and my co-host, William Foxley, who's subbing for Colin, who is on an R&D expedition across the Atlantic.Blockspace goes live every weekday at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. We are Compute's daily live show. If you want more Blockspace media content, go to our website, Blockspace.media newsletter articles, etc. and we kick off every episode.With a tweetWill, what's this tweet say?

Really quick, I think we picked the wrong tweet because I'm realizing now that the Fed decision goes live in 10 minutes. So,

oh my God, do we wanna do it like, do we want to talk about the Fed decision?

I mean, that's, I guess everything kind of comes back to the Fed at the end of the day, but we got a few people in the chat talking about that now. It's like Fed decisions what's happened. So it's funny. Maybe, uh, we'll keep an eye on that, give an update once it, once it happens. Uh, no, this is, uh, a, a tweet from the information. OpenAI plans to use Google's TPUs.We're chatting about this before the stream. I think a lot of people would be like, 00 my, like OpenAI, they're cheating on Nvidia. You can't do that. But come on, like all this hardware is gonna be commoditized, uh, even the information sector itself, intelligence layer looks like it's gonna be commoditized with distillation, so.Can you really be that upset? I, I don't even see this as much of a headline. Uh, I just think it's more to come. Even Elon is cheating on Nvidia. They're gonna make their own chips.

Yeah, I mean, if he can, he's, he's gonna build the largest, uh, the largest building mankind's ever built. Well, OK, I mean, Jensen does have to be feeling.A little bit like this tweet from Negligible Capital. Jensen invests billions in the opening, opening eye, then starts making jalapeno, invests in cerebrs, and buys Google TPUs. It's the meme of the kid, Jensen's saying, congrats, happy for you, nice, etc. So, um, you know, if you're, if you know, the financing was circular, let's just look at the chips, baby.So, we are gonna roll on. We're gonna talk about the iron story at the top, but before that, a word from our sponsor, Saluna.

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Iron enclosed $363 million of refinancing of deployed GPUs with Wingspire, according to a press release this morning, Wednesday. The financing is securing principal is secured principally by GPU servers and network gear, which is already deployed and generating revenue.Iron's share price closed at 27.44 on Tuesday, down 27.35% year to date after a tremendous 2025 where it gained 284% in the year.This might look like a small deal, and in terms of financing it is, but it's also notable for a few reasons. First, why it's small. The company is guided to project capex of $25 to $30 billion for building out its dream of a complete verticalized AI neo cloud.In August, Iran said during its earnings call that they needed at least 25 to $30 billion to to see that uh come to life, and $300 million doesn't do a lot there.It's also notable because Elon Musk recently said that the financing market for neo clouds is basically gone. Quote, as of Sunday, as of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn't have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers. SpaceX closed $40 billion of debt from GPUs, but we're investment grade at Starlink and launch revenue. That means that 200+ neo clouds are going to see guppy level death and consolidation.Some will make it through, but not many, end quote. Charlie, gotta ask the question, is Elon wrong? Is he manipulating markets again?

IsElon ever wrong, or is he ever right? I mean, it's a little bit of both. I'm gonna say both, and look, Elon talks his own book. We know this, he makes projections which shock you, and occasionally he delivers on those.Um, he said there's 200+ neoclouds. Now, I could probably personally name like 30, there's probably more, there's definitely more than that. Um, but we do know there's just gonna be a lot of disappointed investors, a lot of disappointed clients. There's gonna be a lot of GPUs collecting dust once deliveries start coming in Q1 of 2027. But my question is, like,Does Iron, specifically, are they stuck holding the bag? Um, I would say they're much higher on the totem pole than some of these other companies that I, I couldn't name, less, less, maybe haven't even heard of. So, like, they're in a much better position here, and so I'm trying to fend off the Iron Haters cause I see them furiously typing in the comments right now as I speak.

Yeah, I mean we had a few of those, so we've certainly taken some heat from some Iran fans over the last few weeks covering some of the news.The gist of it is like the stock has not done super well this year compared to last year and so we, we've seen a lot of investors get a little spooked by that Capex number I said earlier. I think what you're seeing right now though is the maturity of the debt stack for a company like Iron. So if we look at the broader picture, especially from the, the latest earnings call, they forecast that again that $25 to $30 billion in CapE. They have about $14 billion on hand in cash as of the last earnings call in August.And then they also have the ability to debt finance their builds once they're finished, or use debt from their builds, I should say. So, you know, they have the Sweetwater sites or the Child's sites, and this looks like maybe the, the Prince George site, I think is, is probably what they're referring to here in this notice.They're basically going to like reverse mortgage that in a sense and be able to get cash back from it, and then use that to continue to build out their vision of this verticalized.AI neoCloud. To Elon's point, it does help a lot when you have Starlink revenue, launch revenue, or you know anything else. Maybe if they merge one day with Tesla, they'll have Tesla revenue, and then you're able to get better uh investment grade uh benefits from having more revenue than just like what you're reinvesting in, which at the end of the day for Iron is energy, land, and GPUs.

Yeah, here's the tweet from Elon. I mean, this went giga viral. It was in response, obviously, to Chamoth, so obviously, two of the heavy hitters, two of the talking heads for the AI movement. Um, Iron chart will, look at this, down on the day, it looks like it started the morning at, what, like 28, down to 27. So, market initially not a fan of this, which I don't really understand why. Maybe that that's animal spirits.Um,

well, I mean, I, I would just zoom out like this is a drop in the bucket, uh, what they need for capex spending. So if they came out with a much larger deal, look at the, the cipher note, right, their convertible note a few weeks ago, 850 million, and that really spooked the market because there was some rationale for needing that convertible note, but it was also at a bad time.I think like a smaller financing plan like this, it'sFairly vanilla at the end of the day, like, they already have those GPUs on hand, they're humming along. I think it's like pulled together or it's together AI uh and some other companies that they're.Uh, using already have those leased out, so they're already making money on this, they're just, you know, using that money to go get credit and make more money. Few comments I see Fairfax says, uh, but can they triple net lease, uh, unsure if they triple net on all these, uh, a lot of times that happens during the initial tenant agreement and forUh, iron here, they're not always gonna go that decision to be kind of like a landlord. They're going to own everything, all the infrastructure, pay for itself, and then get some sort of deal like they did with Microsoft, right, where like Microsoft is coming in and using the GPUs that Iron builds. It's different than say like a Clean Spark build where Clean Sparks just like the tenant owns the power in the land, but they don't own the GPUs, and there can be like a few differences there, but I thinkUh, in the Fairfax adds up similar to Ionic. I think that's probably fair. I haven't looked into Ionic since the summer, but I think in general, Charlie, going back to it, we have a Fed decision today. This wasn't a huge notice from Iron.Year to date, it's, it's down. They got a little bit of, uh, execution before we see any more growth in the stock, I think, for the moment, but not, not to say it's perished, just like there's more to come.

Yeah, I mean, any, any few pennies you can scrounge up, maybe you call 363 million pennies these days in the scale of things, you know, whatever cash you can have on hand.To front these deals and put towards projects, the better. So, cash is king, investment grade is uh the usurper. So, um, we are gonna keep on rolling. Next story we have on the dock is Morgan Stanley, very bullish on Terra Wolf, another one of our favorite portfolio companies. How high do you think their, their projection is? You'll have to wait till the story after a word from our sponsor, Luxor.This episode is brought to you by Luxor's Commander, Bitcoin miner management software built for enterprise operations. Commander gives you real-time fleet monitoring, bulk remote commands across your fleet, and intelligent Minor, which is an automated profitability engine that runs every 5 minutes. Adjusting power settings to a live hash rate and energy markets.ERCOT backtests show over 10% more profitability versus binary mining. Commander Pro is $100 per megawatt or 25 basis point pool fee adder.Which is roughly half the price of competitors, and comes with a 60 day free trial. Get started at Luxor.tech/commander.

Morgan Stanley reiterated an overweight rating on 5 AI data center stocks, including HD 8, Terrewolf, Riot, Galaxy Digital, and Cypher Digital. Of the 5, Morgan Stanley gave Terrewolf the most bullish boost, with the price target 413% over its current market price at $12.67.The bank argues that months of underperformance reflect misconceptions about the PowerShell providers, and it's keeping an attractive view on the entire industry. Its bull and Bear cases hit at $104.17 dollars for the stock. Other targets include $43 for Galaxy.15, excuse me, $35 for riot and cipher at $51. All those numbers significantly higher than their current trading average. The bank's core claim is that these operators are landlords, not neo clouds. They signed 15 to 20 year leases instead of 2 to 3 years. They build shells at $9 to $14 per watt versus $30 to $50 per watt, and they took no risk on chips or GPU allocation.Morgan Stanley values, values expected tw contracts at 9% equity discount rate and a 7% termal cap rate, which says, which is above what most real estate investors expect. Charlie, these bullish price targets look a little bit better after the anthropic IPO filing paperwork, which showed a deep cash balance and profitable compute segments. What's your take on these new price targets from Morgan Stanley, given the anthropic IPO?

Well, I can't say a whole lot about what I think a 4X would look like, but I'll point out this, I mean, uh, Morgan Stanley is, uh, down over 50 I'm sorry, Terror Wolf is down over 50% from their all-time highs this past summer, at what, like $28.29 dollars. They're down at 12, so it'sMore than 50% retracement. So, technically, Morgan Stanley at 4 41%, uh, would actually only be a 2, a slightly over 2x from Terre Wolf's all-time highs, which are down, maybe not because the fundamentals of Terre Wolf have changed, but because the data center sector has just taken a bunch of beatings over the past few months.Um, I do wanna mention that there have been a number of other bank notes and investment notes predicting the price that we've covered over the past few months. October 7th, Wells Fargo, Terre Wolf had a $30 price target, which would be, you know, roughly 100% upside from now, actually, 120% upside. Morgan Stanley, as of, I believe, August, had Terre Wolf at a $62 price target, which, by the way,would only be, would be a, uh, would be a uh 500% increase from where we are today. And then also, Needham, John Tadaro, friend of the show here, I've got, we reported on this again in August, um, they kept their Terror Wolf target at 33 bucks, um, which again, is slightly over their all-time high. So, the thing is, like, everybody's bullish Te wolf, it's really just a matter of, like, uh, is itIs it, how many, how, how much multiple increases it from here, which is a flat from the start of the year, or is it, are we just benchmarking to the previous all-time high of like 28 bucks? Long story short is, everybody's bullish cherry wolf, it, you know, how bullish are you is the question.

A few thoughts here. So one disclosure, I do hold Terra Wolf in my personal portfolio, and I'm a long-term holder of it. I enjoy what the team is building over there, and I do think that the PowerShell model makes a lot of sense. And there are, uh, there is a big divergence in the market.that I think a lot of people don't know about when they're first looking at these stocks, that neocloud, hey, we're going to not only own the power in the land, but we're also going to buy the chips, we're going to build the orchestration layer for GPUs, we're going to go sign contracts with AI labs, or we're going to sell our compute into a generalized market.And then there's the PowerShell model where it's like, hey, we're pretty happy with just owning the power and the land, we will be the landlord, you can be the tenant, you get certain rights to come use our facilities. They typically signed 15 to 20 year deals, uh, and, and that's pretty stable. You can kind of like look at the, the net expectation for that over 15 to 20.20 years, and it's almost like the people who move in as tenants own the space for 15 to 20 years, uh, but not quite because there's that profitable layer in between that companies like Wolf are able to sit in, and so I'm a huge fan of that. Now, on the other hand, I do think that there are some dangers here, and I'm just gonna pull up this chart if you can help me do that, but there's, there's the other layer which isThe funding risk for these sites, this is Cypher Digital, which I mentioned earlier in the show, they put out that convertible note, bad time in the market. They needed a little more money because cost overruns, expensive and hot to well, it's not expensive to build in Texas, but it's hot to build in Texas. They need a little more cash, uh, andThe market kind of puked on it and they've been trying to recover for a while. You can see that market seems to try to be getting going again and it's struggling, but uh you can look at over once these ads drop off, look at the, the year to date levels and things like that, and it's kind of struggling. I think so is trading view at the moment, but it's, uh, yeah, pretty brutal in a, in a percentage term like we're not necessarily getting where we want to with, with cipher at the moment.Uh, because of those cost overruns, so moving away from that segment and, and getting away from it, I want to pull up this video from Paul Prager. He's the CEO over at Terra Wolf, and I think he does a good job explainingthis.

We love a good Paul Prager video. Was this, is this the CNBC one? He had a great,

yeah, he hadsome great, I linked it in the show notes, so we should be able to pull that up in a second, but I'll let you grab that, and in between, I'll just kind of mention that the way that Terra Wolf is thinking long term at the moment is.Let's go find more sites, and I expect them to have more lease announcements going into next year and maybe even to earnings, like that's what these guys do, they're almost like real estate investors where they go and find plots of powered land and build that out, uh, and it's excellent for investors because there's a little bit of risk diversification there versus the GPU market where it's like, hey, we got to go find debt, we gotta go findUh, installation teams, orchestration, we have to go find customers, 2 to 3 year contracts. There's a lot of problems with that versus like, hey, we need a plot of land, we need energy, let's go. Let's watch this from Paul Pragers, the CEO over at Terrrow Wolf.

Companies like Core Weave, Neoclouds versus companies like ours. We're a co-location company, which means we own the land, we own the energy, we build.The Building and we operate the data center so we have long term predictable cash flow and we get quality energy from an investment grade credit like a utility, Kentucky Power AP and we sell it to a high quality credit. In this case, our customer Eli Mariner effectively is anthropic in the announced deal Hawesville anthropic.But what the investors also need to understand is that we have an investment grade backstop in Lake Mariner. It's from Google. In Kentucky, in Hawesville, we have an investment grade backstop commitment so we can raise the capital at very competitive rates. I think the other thing that the investors need to understand is we're not all the same. You have to focus on execution. You must focus on execution.We have guided the markets that we're building at our facilities at 8 to 10 per megawatt, 8 to 10 million per megawatt. We are squarely right in that range. We haven't changed our story and we're delivering data hall 4 at theThe 4th quarter and CB 5 in the 1st quarter of next year. So we're on schedule. We are on track to deliver within a timely fashion. We are delivering at the cost that we told the customer we would deliver at, and we have thecapital.

He's right. I mean, it's like, think about how long and persistent this narrative has been, that they've been on time.At the budget they targeted and they have investment grade counterparties, like, it's almost like they saw the playbook happening, uh, a year before it came to fruition. So shout out to we're just

bull bull posting here for terrible, but, but

the stock's down 60% on the year, so, you know,

yeah, I mean, like a lot of these got spooked and there was a ton of compression in the, in the markets since July.Uh, because it's like, oh this tenant thesis, you do need to have multiple tenants. Remember, I remember a year ago we're thinking about this with who's going to sign next, who's gonna get the next deal, and then it became not the next deal, but how many different types of counterparties you can have this deal? Is it gonna be hyperscalers, is it gonna be different AI labs, and then it became, OK, execution would see the revenue start flowing in.And then it became, oh, are you keeping your cost down? Uh, oh, then it became, can you keep your debt levels within the boundaries. The game's always changing, only a few teams are gonna be able to execute. Right now, I like Wolf, Morgan Stanley also makes note of a few other companies, so I think we can leave the, the levels there. As always, check out the website, uh, Blockspace.media for more content.

Yeah, we published a lot on Terra Wolf and uh new price targets from the banks and investment banks that we cover drop, we'll turn them around quickly. You'll hear it on our channel's first Blockspace.media. We're gonna talk about the memory trade. Is it so back? Um, it is not clear, but SK Heinek's up big this morning. We'll talk about that after a word from our sponsor, Lygos.Hedge funds are getting liquidated. Is your Bitcoin safe? It's not just Bitcoin price drying up, big whales, hedge funds and lending desks are going under after the notorious crypto winter. Counterparty risk is rampant, so it's more important than ever to understand who actually controls your Bitcoin. Don't be the next FTX or Celsius victim.If you're working with another loan provider, do yourself a favor before it's too late and check out LIGOS Finance. LIGOS Finance is Blockspace's preferred non-custodial Bitcoin lender, which uses native Bitcoin smart contracts to protect your Bitcoin stack. With LIGOS, you always know where your Bitcoin is. Hold your keys, no wrapping, no bridging, no rehypothecation, and get competitive rates as low as 10% APR. Go to LIGOs.finance to learn more.Is the memory trade back? SK Heinek just reported an eye-watering profits and is up 12% today.Here's what's going on and why investors may be piling back into the memory trade.So last summer, memory stocks like Samsung and SK Heinex soared upwards, and then there was a bloodbath, as the memory trade collapsed. Across the major memory and storage makers, roughly $11 trillion in market value was erased in a single week, just earlier this month.SK Heinx, the industry leader in high bandwidth memory, HBM for short, fell nearly 60% from its peak in June.However, last night, SK Heinex reported 3rd quarter results, and the numbers tell a very, very different story than the doom and gloom you've been seeing. Revenue for SK Heinex topped 100 trillion won for the first time in the company's history, which is more sit down than it earned all of last year. Operating profit came in nearly $60 billion.At an 80% operating margin. That's the 6th consecutive record quarter for the company, and it beat consensus by about 10%. I will go deeper into the numbers behind SK Heinek, but first, throw it to Will, who granted, Will is not a memory trader here. But Will, these profit numbers are about as good as it can possibly get.Why do you think investors were so ready to bail on this trade just a few weeks ago?

I mean, I remember the summer and the and the craziness that we saw with this stock, uh, South Korean markets were big on it and there was a lot of margin calls, there was some stat about the sizable percentage of the South Korean population had been margin called over the summer and I, I think this IPO had a lot of reasons to do with it.Look, the, the entire game is predicated on having all of the stack, memory is part of that stack. So if you're an AI bowl, then you can't just say, hey, I'm gonna sit out and part of this, and parts of that stack have more of a bottleneck than others, right? So we talk about Power land on this show because that's a lot of the counterparties we're used to working with. We just talked about Morgan Stanley and like their bullish price targets on the PowerShell providers.Think about the hardware layer. There's all this hardware that needs to be talked about. We met up with Dylan Patel at Yada just a few weeks ago, and we asked him what's the biggest bottleneck people aren't thinking about. And he said drill bits for PCB boards.

I had to, I did, I had to Google that. I was like, what? And I, I quickly was like, oh, it's the little drill tips they go in and they drill the actual like electronics boards that sit that the stuff sits on. So yeah, just, I mean, that's a neat about that.

Yeah, just think about that, like the, there is a need on every single layer of the stack, and that's when people talk about this AI bubble as being something scary. I think you can take that.Kind of inside a little bit because a bubble like this does touch everything in the market, and I think as like humans, we have a hard time thinking about exponentials. This is one of those cases with the memory stock, so there's an exponential, there is a need for this equipment on every part of the globe, and you're going to see the few companies that can provide this at scale have huge markups on all their numbers. Uh, last thing I'll say, I throw it back to you.Just what a reversal versus a few weeks ago, and this is so classic, right? But you think it's all over, all of our stocks are down 50, 60% year to date, like we're off way from the highs, like is situational awareness gonna make it. Things are only getting worse.And then there's like a little bit of good news, and then like a little more good news comes out, and then all of a sudden like Meta is doing a huge raise because like they're so bullish on the segment and like Claude and Anthropic are having huge usage growth despite everyone saying it's on and then you see stuff like this like over the memory tree.Is back. So never, never doom pill, never dark pill, never red pill, like, stay with trade is what I kind of think after seeing this. Look,

look, if the memory trade is so back, we, you need to refer back to the show that you heard it here first. And if it's not so bad and we keep going down.Just forget we ever even covered this story. But let me like pull up the actual numbers cause the fundamentals are very impressive. I think people just got way too reactive about the stocks as well. So, here's the numbers from the quarterly earnings. One, revenue is up nearly $80 billion US dollars.That is a company record, and it's up 32% from last quarter and more than 400% from this quarter last year. Operating profit was about $63 billion. So of that $80 billion revenue, $63 billion was operating profit, which is sevenfold increase year over year.This is the 6th straight record quarter, as I said. And then that one quarter, this one past quarter brought in more revenue than all of last year. And this is happening everywhere you, you look. Micron just posted an operating margin above 80%.And then Samsung, I got the chart here, it's up great this week, up 9, 10%. Samsung is also rebounding this week. And the interesting thing is, like, like, why did memory just become all of a sudden the trade? It's historically been the commodity with the low margin layer of the chip business. It's been not flashy, it's been a consistent part of the Korean economy, particularly, and right now, it's like the most profitable business in tech alongside Nvidia.SK Heinix's $63 billion in operating profit is within about a billion dollars of Nvidia's last quarter. So, it's kind of crazy to see these two companies have roughly the same uh operating profit. Only Samsung and Nvidia earn more operating profit among these global tech companies.What is driving this? Well, it's the high bandwidth memory, specifically HBM 4 high bandwidth memory version 4.Which is the newest high bandwidth memory, and that's the the memory that goes on all of the AI chips. Um, it started full mass production, and it's uh happening at SK Hein's new Fab, which is called M15X, which is fully online by the year end. And then you also have a new type of RAM DDR 5, but it's specifically for servers, so it's server DDR5, specifically data center memory. Sales are up 40% from last quarter. So back to Will.Will, you're not a memory investor, you're a data center guy, but I'm still gonna put you in the hot seat. Put your investor hat on.The Stock was down 60%. You've seen bubbles, we've been in crypto for like nearly a decade. Um, the company just posted some of the best numbers it's ever posted at the highest in its category in manufacturing and tech.Is this the moment to get back into memory or people stopped out? Yeah, what do you, what do you do? You could just like sense the vibes on the timeline. What do you think?

I mean, good earnings get in there, right? Like especially if the expectation going forward is just more in continuous growth. That's all I can really say about it, I'm not a memory trader. I don't, I don't touch it too much, but if you're beating consensus by 10%, and that's how all these hedge funds kind of do things now, it's not really like, oh, like what was your revenue, what was your profitability on that, like it's all consensus, like, are you beating, are you under, were you under, how are you over?And if it's over that much, for one, I think a lot of these buy side, sell side firms need to get better information, uh, and, and two, probably a good place to look at, I don't think that we're gonna see a slowdown.In these sort of applications, desire of these applications, cost for these, it would be interesting if there was like some sort of metric you could kind of look at like the cost to purchase new GPUs and how that plays into uh the demand for memory and things like that, but I guess it would all be pretty like backwards looking, maybe not that helpful, uh, but yeah, I, my brain is kind of thinking around this now that it's popping again, like how can we think about actual deployments, purchase price for these things.And then tie it back into bottlenecks like memory.

Yeah, you don't hear people talk about the bottleneck trade right now, but I bet you they start doing it. I got this tweet pulled up, um, this went viral today in light of the SK Heinek news, and again, it's sarcasm. So he says, oh no, bad news for the memory bowls. SK Heinek only made $62 billion of profit in one quarter, for perspective.It's about 7 years' worth of Tesla profits, or about 15 years of Palantir's current yearly profits, or 6 years of AMD's current yearly profits, all in one quarter, not 1 year, but it doesn't really matter, cause memory, it's cyclical, and cyclical money is like monopoly money. And all these really smart people on X taught me that cyclical money doesn't really count. So, the tweet goes on and on, but like,It does underscore that when you compare how much profit SK Hein has just made, compared to all the other cool companies worth way more than it, it does boggle the mind. So,Is the memory trade back?Let us know in the comments, let us know what you think. We will respond. Thank you for listening to Block Space Live, co-hosted by Charlie Spears and William Foxley. My, my former co-host, Colin Harper is somewhere in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, I hope, doing some R&D on uh prevailing trade winds.If you like the show, leave us a comment. We do this every single weekday at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. However, there is a slight change of the schedule. Given that Colin is out, we may be doing this Monday, Wednesday, Friday. Still, make sure to hit that like and subscribe. Turn the notification bell on so you get the push notification on your device when we're live, 1:00 p.m. Eastern.This is Compute's daily live show. Thank you for watching. I'm Charlie.I'm Will.We'll see you tomorrow.