Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF)

Which stocks rose to the top and which fell behind in the third quarter? In the quarter, the S&P 500 gained 2%, following a rise of 15% in 2Q and a loss of 4% in 1Q. But the strongest gains were concentrated within only a few sectors: Energy, Healthcare, and Information Technology. In fact, a majority of sectors were negative in the quarter. The laggards included Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financial, Industrial, Materials, Real Estate, and Utilities. In the Argus Universe Coverage (more than 500 public companies), and looking at both BUY-rated and HOLD-rated companies, the average stock performance in the third quarter was a loss of 2% and the median change was a loss of 5%. The 10 top-performing BUY-rated stocks rose 71% on average. The following is a list of those top performers (noting that only four sectors are represented.) and also includes the bottom-five performers.

We have several different ways of looking at market valuations, and most are signaling that stocks are reasonably valued, though hardly at bargain-basement levels. Our primary stock/bond asset-allocation model is our Stock/Bond Barometer. This market measure goes back to 1960 and takes into account real-time price levels, historical growth rates, and forward-looking forecasts of numerous factors. The output is expressed in terms of standard deviations to the mean, or sigma. The mean reading from the model is a modest premium for stocks, of 0.18 sigma, with a standard deviation of 1.06. The current valuation level now is a 0.83 sigma premium for stocks, which is not low but is within the normal range. Other valuation measures show reasonable multiples for stocks. The current forward P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is 20, within the range of 15-24, as earnings estimates continue to rise. On price/book, dividend yield, and price/sales ratios, it is no surprise that stocks are priced at the high end of the historical ranges, given that tech stocks, which have low capital bases and generally low yields, are the biggest component of the market. We check other ratios as well. For example, the gap between the S&P 500 earnings yield and the real 10-year government bond yield is now 345 basis points, in line with the historical average and well below the nosebleed valuation levels of 200 basis points back in the "dot-com" bubble days. On the Fed's stock valuation model, the earnings yield is above the 10-year Treasury bond, signaling value for stocks. Lastly, the ratio of the S&P 500 price to an ounce of gold is 1.7, within the normal range of 1-3. These valuation measures suggest to us that the stock market -- which is up almost 10% year-to-date -- is not in danger of entering bubble territory at this juncture.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Earnings season is almost over, with about 97% of S&P 500 companies having reported as of Friday. Many knocked it out of the park, delivering earnings and revenue numbers that were well ahead of expectations. We always look at trends and, as usual, there are companies increasing guidance. Raising guidance is one of our Investing Themes for the second half of 2026. We view management's ability to raise guidance consistently as a catalyst for possible market-beating returns in the quarters ahead. It's even harder for companies to lift guidance during uncertain economic times, as vision is murky. This is true now, as the war in the Middle East drags on. As well, Wall Street has a new chairman of the Federal Reserve, one with a different view about forward-looking guidance (or in this case, a lack thereof). As many companies increased guidance during this earnings cycle, we put out two lists. The first was back on August 3 -- and now we offer up our second list, made up of companies in Argus' fundamental Universe of Coverage. Many of the names in this latest list are in the consumer space, as these companies tend to report at the end of earnings season.