We have been watching crypto currencies very carefully for the past couple of months, this as they drifted sideways within a well-defined range. Bitcoin (BTC) was smashed after hitting its all-time high (ATH) in October, but appears to be tracing out a bottom. There was huge downside volume from that October ATH until the middle of February, with clear and relentless distribution for more than four months. That changed toward the end of February, with upside volume taking over, indicating the start of accumulation. This is beginning to look like a switch from weak investor hands to strong investor hands.

Crude oil has found some price equilibrium, although it doesn't really feel like it. For now, a flattish trajectory for the energy markets has taken some pressure off the equity markets, as the global markets tug-of-war seems to be at a standstill. The major indices have at least stopped heading lower, and that's a small victory based on the price action over the past month. The S&P 500 (SPX) is sitting near the same level booked four days ago. While the index broke slightly below its six-month range on an intraday and closing basis on March 20, it stayed below for only one day. The more-serious issue is that the SPX has closed below its 200-day average for a fifth straight day. Still, the index is only 39 points under the average, and one decent rally could repair the damage. Stepping back, the SPX closed slightly below its weekly lower Bollinger Band (BB) last week, and it's possible the index will recapture the lower band this week. Historically, such an event has been a very powerful buy signal -- except during major corrections and bear markets. For instance, the last buy signals occurred in April of 2025, and with the move above the middle band, added confirmation to a signal in May. Other recent buy signals occurred in November 2023, April 2020, and January 2019. The one big failure was during 2022's bear market, when the S&P 500 lost the lower band three straight times and it wasn't until the fourth signal that the market finally turned higher. During the third breach, the SPX reclaimed the middle band in August 2022 only to break to new bear-market lows. (Mark Arbeter, CMT)

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The major indices are higher at midday on Wednesday. Stocks continue to ride a roller coaster that is powered by ever-changing news related to the war on Iran. The yield on the 10-year note is at 4.33%. Crude oil is down 3% at $90 per barrel. The VIX volatility index is lower at 25.