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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Employment Situation for August. The U.S. added 162,000 nonfarm jobs, helped by increases in food services and drinking places and in local government education. Employment in the information industry declined. Private payrolls were up a solid 127,000. Government added 35,000 jobs, with federal down 5,000 and local education up 50,000, almost reversing last month's decline. Our forecast was for an increase of 50,000 new jobs in August, while the consensus was 58,000. August's results raised the three-month average to 71,000 from 20,000. July's payrolls were revised higher by 44,000 to 21,000 and June was increased by 11,000 to a gain of 31,000. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, which matched our estimate and the consensus. Average hourly earnings increased $0.10 month to month and are 3.1% higher year over year. The average workweek ticked up to 34.4 hours. Employment showed little change in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; wholesale trade; retail trade; transportation and warehousing; financial activities; professional and business services; social assistance; and other services. The manufacturing sector added 16,000 jobs. Construction added 22,000. Stock futures slipped after the report. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose by four basis points to 4.4%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury, which is closely tied to expectations for monetary policy, was up by 3 basis points to 4.79%. Based on futures trading, traders became more hawkish. The probability that the fed funds rate will end the year at the current 3.5%-3.75% target range fell to 12.5% from 16.4%. There was no expectation of a rate cut before or after the report. The probability that the funds rate will be 25 basis points (bps) higher at the end of the year fell to 39.5% from 42.5%, but the probably that rates will be higher by 50 bps or more increased to 48% from 41.1%. The probability of a September rate hike jumped to 60% from 52% before the report.

Stocks moved higher on Thursday, with the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.77% and growing hope that interest rates will be held steady (and not raised) when the Fed next meets. But with all the major indices in the green at the close, the positive day was almost immediately an after-thought as the attention of Wall Street is now squarely on the nonfarm payrolls report due out before the open today. Recent data on private payrolls was weaker-than-expected and in a 'bad news is good news' theory, a soft employment report would give the Fed more cover to hold rates steady.

Dollar General, based in Goodlettsville, Tennessee, operates 21,148 discount stores across the United States and in Mexico. It generated $42.7 billion in sales in the fiscal year ended January 30, 2026. More than 80% of DG stores are in communities with populations of less than 20,000. Three quarters of the U.S. population lives within three miles of a Dollar General store. Total selling space is approximately 159 million square feet. DG is expanding its traditional store from 7,400 square feet to 8,500 or 9,500 to accommodate more refrigerators and a wider assortment. Sales were $270 per square foot in FY26. Dollar General has over 2,000 items at or below the $1 price point, about 17% of their total inventory of around 12,000 items. Stores sell everyday necessities that drive frequent visits. DG generates about 82% of sales from consumables such as cleaning supplies and over-the-counter medicines, and 10% of sales from seasonal products including toys and party products. About 5% of sales come from home products such as light bulbs and storage containers and 2.6% from apparel. Most products are priced at $10 or less. The company's fiscal year ends on the Friday closest to January 31. The current year, which we call FY27, is a 52-week year ending on January 29, 2027. The company has over 194,000 employees.

Over the past 150-plus years, Campbell's has evolved into a leading domestic packaged food manufacturer, with a portfolio that extends beyond its iconic red-and-white labeled canned soup. In fiscal 2026 (July year-end), meals and beverages accounted for 61% of its revenue, while snacks accounted for 39%. Beyond its namesake, its brands include Pepperidge Farm, Goldfish, Snyder’s of Hanover, Swanson, Pacific Foods, Prego, Pace, V8, and, most recently, Rao’s (a deal that closed in 2024). Around 90% of its revenue results from the US and the remainder from Canada and Latin America.