Yahoo

Inflation Odds Move Toward 100%

Explore stocks on Coinbase

Quick Read

  • Diesel prices hit an all-time high of $5.85, up 58% year-over-year, threatening to drive inflation higher across the 70% of US freight moved by trucks.

  • Nebraska crop yields fell 20%, beef prices surged to multi-year highs, and mortgage rates climbed to 6.71%, stacking more cost pressure onto consumers.

  • University of Michigan consumer sentiment dropped 6% from last month and 11% year-over-year, as Americans broadly expect inflation to stay elevated.

  • Just released. Our analysts combed the entire stock market and named the ten best stocks to buy right now, and Walmart didn't make the cut. Enter your email to see the names that beat WMT. The report is free. Enter your email and see if any of your stocks made the cut.

The US economy isn't on fire, but it is close. It added 162,000 jobs in August.

Determining whether inflation rates are too high is complex. The formula can include interest rates, the CPI, currency exchange rates, and the rate at which wages are growing. Some economists compare prices from 1980 to today's consumer prices. Some measures include housing. Others do not. Food is generally included, as is fuel.

A close-up shot of a thick roll of U.S. one hundred dollar bills, secured tightly by a bright yellow rubber band. The bills are slightly fanned on one end, revealing their edges, and the green and white details of the currency are clearly visible, including parts of the serial number and Federal Reserve seal.
24/7 Wall St.

According to government measures based on CPI, the inflation rate was 8% in 2022. Some of this was because of a spike in oil prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Another part was due to food prices. "Inflation risk" rose enough that the Fed raised rates seven times that year.

Inflation, by loose consensus, would be CPI and PPI increases of 5% per year. Mortgage rates would matter, as would food and fuel prices. These are at the heart of the cost of living for most people and many businesses.

Free Report, Just Released

Why Didn't WMT Make The Top 10 List?

24/7 Wall St has helped investors make money for over two decades, and our top analysts just finished ranking the definitive Top 10 Stocks To Buy Now . Not the ten biggest companies. Not the ten everyone is arguing about. The ten best stocks to buy right now.

And WMT didn't make the cut!

The report is free, and you can see why we think each stock is a top investment today.

Enter Your Email and See the Ten →

The BLS reported a 3.4% year-over-year CPI increase in July. Several things had not hit the economy hard yet. The most important of these is probably diesel prices, because they ripple across most of the economy. Diesel prices hit an all-time high today. Trucks move 70% of freight in the US. That includes deliveries to McDonald's ( NYSE: MCD ) and Walmart ( NYSE: WMT ). It increases deliveries to your home. At $5.85, diesel prices are up 58% from a year ago.

Drivers and freight companies will pass along as much as they can from rising fuel prices. Companies that take those deliveries will try to pass them on to consumers. That means inflation shows up in three places—those that transport, those that receive goods, and consumers who buy those goods.

Another example is food prices. Not all of the shortage of farm produce has been passed to the consumer yet. Places like Nebraska have cut yields by 20% for certain crops. In turn, this is reflected in beef prices. Beef cattle are fed by grain. Beef prices are already at or near their highest level in years.

Mortgage rates recently hit a level not matched since July 2025. The fixed-rate 30-year mortgage rate reached 6.71%. Adjustable-rate mortgages are over 7% for a 5/1 ARM. Add to this the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, which has risen every month this year.

For good measure, car prices are at a record high, with an average price of $51,820. Car loan interest rates are near 6%.

What is inflation? As much as formulas, it is how people feel. This month's University of Michigan Survey of Consumers gave a clue. "Consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading, falling about 6% from last month and landing about 11% below a year ago amid continued worries that inflation will remain elevated for the foreseeable future."

Q.E.D.

Got $1,000? Before You Buy WMT, Read This

If you have cash sitting in your account right now, give this two minutes. After more than two decades of helping investors beat the market, our top analysts at 24/7 Wall St. put together a definitive report on the Top 10 Stocks To Buy Today. And WMT wasn't one of them.

They combed the entire market. It's not 10 ideas, not 10 stocks everyone is talking about, it's what their research points to as the 10 best stocks to buy right now, and it's free. Read more here and see which stocks made the list -->>

Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections.

Mobilize your Website
View Site in Mobile | Classic
Share by: