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Ryanair boss predicts ‘biggest increase in airfares in history’

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Michael O'Leary
Ryanair shares fell 2pc after Michael O'Leary's remarks - EPA/Shutterstock/Olivier Hoslet

Airline passengers across Europe face the steepest fare increases in history over the next year, the boss of Ryanair has warned.

Michael O'Leary said his company and its rivals would be forced to pass on higher costs to consumers as the conflict in the Middle East continues to drive up oil prices.

He warned fares could jump by as much as 20pc, adding that even then airlines were likely to take a hit to their bottom lines.

Speaking in Brussels, Mr O'Leary said: "You're going to see the biggest increase in airfares, I would say, in history in Europe in the next 12 months.

"The question is, will that increase in airfares be enough to cover the dramatically higher oil bills ? I don't think it will be."

Airlines are facing a profit crunch as fuel-hedging positions – which have shielded the companies from the worst of the oil price rise since the start of the Iran war – begin to unwind.

That means they will be forced to buy a far bigger proportion of their jet fuel at market rates. Prices have surged by 113pc to $192 (£144) a barrel since the start of 2026 – more than double the increase in the cost of crude oil.

Mr O'Leary said Ryanair had no pricing protection for 85pc of its estimated fuel needs for next year and that "most of the other European airlines are in a similar position".

Ryanair shares fell around 2pc following his remarks, sending the stock to a 25pc decline for the year and putting it on course for its worst annual return since 2018.

Thousands of flights cut

European airlines have already cut flights for the winter low season in an attempt to minimise their fuel bills and push up prices by restricting the availability of seats.

The cuts at Ryanair have been among the deepest, with the Irish firm expected to carry two million fewer passengers this financial year after eliminating around 4pc of winter capacity. It said the changes should reduce the fuel bill by as much as €100m (£84m).

The move to scrap flights is an unusual one for Ryanair, which has previously chased market share at all costs in the hope that weaker airlines will struggle to keep pace, and underscores the depth of the crisis facing the industry as the Gulf conflict drags on.

Mr O'Leary has said that even if the war ended tomorrow, airlines are "all facing an enormous cost challenge", warning that it could be a year before kerosene prices returned to normal and that high fares are therefore likely to continue into 2028.

EasyJet, which has agreed to a £5.7bn takeover by US private equity firm Apollo, also said this month that it would eliminate thousands of services from a winter schedule that it had already trimmed once in response to escalating costs.

The UK airline will wipe a further 3,500 flights – equivalent to about 700,000 seats – from its timetable. It said the move should come as "no surprise" given that fuel prices had stayed unexpectedly high.

Industry body Iata warned in June that rising fuel costs were expected to deal a $100bn (£75bn) blow to the aviation sector this year.

The pressure has already triggered the collapse of Spirit Airlines, a US discount carrier, while Latvian flag carrier AirBaltic and Spain's Volotea are seeking to restructure under bankruptcy protection.

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