Pre-Markets Drop on Warmer CPI Numbers: +0.4% Month over Month

Tuesday, November 10th, 2026

Pre-market futures are swinging lower ahead of today's opening bell, with new Consumer Price Index (CPI)numbers depicting hotter-than-expected inflation numbers for October. The blue-chip Dow, which had stayed in the green for the first few minutes after the report, is now -85 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is -390 points, and the S&P 500 has slipped -50 points. The small-cap Russell 2000 is flat (-1 point) currently.

Bond yields are climbing in accord with the higher inflation numbers: +4.936% on the 10-year, +4.627% on the 2-year and the 30-year at +5.292%. These remain off late-September highs, but are going the wrong direction for those hoping the Fed cools its jets on interest rate hikes. Following these CPI figures, odds are now basically +100% that the Fed will hike 25 basis points (bps) a month from now; odds for another hike in March of 2027 is now +81%.

CPI Data +0.4% MoM, No Inflation Rate YoY

October CPI came in at +0.4% this morning, 20 bps lower than the +0.6% from September, but 10 bps above where consensus estimates had predicted. Subtracting volatile food and energy prices, the core print came in at +0.3% — also 10 bps hitter than expected. This in itself is not much of a problem, but clearly this is an unsustainable level of month-over-month inflation if we're waiting for interest rates to come down.

Energy prices grew +0.7% for the month, with Gasoline +1%, as may have been expected. Food prices raised another +0.5% for the month, as diesel fuel prices make their way beyond the Energy sector. Both Housing and Owner's Equivalent Rent came in at +0.3%, while Real Earnings (adjusted for inflation) came in at 0%. More grist for the mill that the American household is not keeping pacer with inflation.

We see no Inflation Rate (CPI year over year) for October, as the government shutdown from 2025 caused the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to skip over October 2025. Therefore, we're spared what may have been the first "4-handle" on year-over-year CPI since May. (Consensus was for +3.9%, above the +3.7% reported for September.) It would stand to reason, however, that the Inflation Rate returns next month.

Small-Business Optimism Ticks Lower for October

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Indexfor October came out earlier this morning, ticking down -10 bps to 97.8 month over month, though not far below the long-term (53-year) historic average 98.0. The Uncertainty Index was the lowest of 2026 so far, down -6 points to 84.

Small-business owners once again cited Labor Quality and Availability as their biggest issue, followed by Taxes. Only +18% plan to create jobs (seasonally adjusted), while +56% said they are actively hiring or trying to hire (+86% of those found few or no qualified applicants). Just +8% of small-business owners expect better business conditions over the next six months, but that's up +2% month over month.

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