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U.S. policy shift on Venezuelan oil raises stakes for production and debt: BofA

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Investing.com -- Bank of America said a reported U.S. move to take control of Venezuelan oil reserves represents a major shift in policy, with ambiguous implications for the country's defaulted debt.

"The US is said to take control of 65bn bbls of oil reserves. Details are limited, but a major shift is taking place," analyst Anne Milne wrote, noting the action comes as progress on developing the sector has slowed dramatically.

According to reports the bank cited, the U.S. government plans a 25-year arrangement covering 17 oil fields, taking a stake via a partnership between the Department of Defense and Alejandro Betancourt's NABEP.

The deal is expected to draw $100 billion of investment and would give the U.S. 55% effective output of a new private company, with production potentially exceeding 1.5 million barrels per day.

BofA maintained its production target of 1.6 million barrels per day but pushed the timing from the end of 2027 to sometime in 2028, saying the market will need time to analyze the new paradigm.

On the debt, the bank called the implications ambiguous, noting it is positive in that it could boost output where majors have hesitated, but with an unclear fiscal take for Caracas and an untested production model. It flagged downside risk for legacy creditors if Washington prioritizes reconstruction.

BofA also cautioned that Venezuela's heavy Orinoco crude is technically difficult and costly to extract, often selling at a steep discount.

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