Investing.com -- Brent crude traded up 2% on Monday, touching an intraday high of $91.52, after U.S. forces struck two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island over the weekend and Iran retaliated with eight ballistic missiles at Jordanian air bases. The exchange of fire has reignited supply-disruption fears over the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries roughly a fifth of global oil supplies and has been largely closed to commercial traffic since March.

Beyond Sunday's exchange, the deeper market concern is what comes next in U.S. strategy. Axios reported, citing three U.S. officials, that President Trump and senior aides are weighing a CENTCOM-developed plan for periodic limited strikes in the strait — sometimes referred to internally as "mow the lawn" — designed to prevent Iran from rebuilding radar and missile capabilities before each assault. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth backs the approach, though Axios reported it had not been formally approved before the weekend's clashes. A White House official told Axios: "The President retains all options at his disposal. The Iranians want to make a deal, but they are always a day late and a dollar short."

Trump himself told Fox News, as quoted by Reuters: "We're going to hit them hard. There will be a response." He also posted AI-generated videos falsely depicting Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal being destroyed. Iran called the post "laughable"; Vice President JD Vance said Trump "likes to switch it up on social media" and was "sending a message," per Reuters. No strike on Kharg took place, and maritime security expert Ian Ralby told CNBC that such a strike is "unlikely" given Kharg's cultural heritage status and the risk of catastrophic environmental damage.

The economic pressure campaign is running in parallel. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking at a G20 finance ministers meeting in North Carolina, told Reuters on Sunday that fresh secondary sanctions targeting banks will be unveiled weekly, with the explicit goal of cutting Tehran-linked institutions out of the dollar system entirely. "They're in shock at the state of their economy," Bessent told Reuters. "I would think that they are lashing out kinetically because they are losing economically."

Analysts are split on whether the Larak strike signals a genuine policy shift. Ralby told CNBC the strike is "likely an attempt to break a deadlock rather than a shift in policy," suggesting Washington is running low on patience with the slower sanctions timeline but stopping short of a full escalation toward Iran's energy infrastructure.