This article first appeared on GuruFocus .
-
Revenue:Approximately $6.6 billion in Q2, up 33% sequentially and 42% year over year.
-
Adjusted EBITDA:Reached $2.8 billion, a record high, up 76% sequentially and 2.5 times year over year.
-
Adjusted EBITDA Margin:43%, the highest level in two decades.
-
Operating Result:$1.8 billion, a new record high.
-
Net Result:$1.2 billion, the second-best quarterly performance ever.
-
Free Cash Flow:$824 million, the third highest in company history.
-
Liquidity:Closed at a record high of $2.5 billion.
-
Net Leverage:Decreased to 1.1 times, the lowest in more than a decade.
-
CapEx:Deployed over $1.3 billion in Q2, up 37% sequentially and 16% year over year.
-
Shale Oil Production:Reached 213,000 barrels per day, up 4% sequentially and 47% year over year.
-
Refinery Processing:Averaged 351,000 barrels per day, a record high, up 2% sequentially and 16% year over year.
-
Lifting Costs:Decreased 31% year over year to $8.4 per BOE.
-
Midstream and Downstream EBITDA Margin:Expanded to nearly $30 per barrel.
-
2026 Guidance:Adjusted EBITDA expected around $8 billion, up from previous guidance of $6 billion; CapEx guidance increased to $5.8-$6.2 billion; free cash flow expected around $2 billion; net leverage expected to decline to nearly one time.
Release Date: August 11, 2026
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
Positive Points
-
Record adjusted EBITDA of $2.8 billion, the best in company history, with a 70% increase over the previous record.
-
Shale oil production reached a new high of 213,000 barrels per day, up 47% year-over-year, with 80% of total oil production now from shale.
-
Net leverage decreased to 1.1 times, the lowest level in over a decade, with liquidity at a record $2.5 billion.
-
Refinery processing hit a record 351,000 barrels per day, enabling surplus fuel production and exports without imports.
-
Revised 2026 guidance increased adjusted EBITDA to around $8 billion, up from $6 billion, and net leverage to nearly 1.0 times.
Negative Points
-
Conventional production dropped 49% year-over-year due to divestments, reducing overall production diversity.
-
Natural gas production declined 6% year-over-year, reflecting exits from conventional fields and constraints on gas evacuation.
-
CapEx guidance increased by approximately 5% to $5.8-$6.2 billion, with higher spending expected in the second half.
-
Working capital was negatively impacted by seasonal natural gas sales, with collections delayed to the following quarter.
-
Fuel pricing strategy involved a temporary buffer mechanism, which postponed price adjustments and may have limited margin growth.
Q & A Highlights
Q: What are the next key milestones toward the final investment decision (FID) for the Argentina LNG project, and what remaining commercial or regulatory risks still need to be addressed before the project is fully sanctioned? A: Horacio Daniel Marin (Chairman and CEO) stated that the project is very close to FID, with all documentation completed and the data room process with ECAs and banks underway. He noted that the EPC for the gas and oil pipelines is ready to be built within two months, and the large NGL and gas conditioning plant in Rio Negro will follow shortly after. All contracts with the provinces of Neuquen and Rio Negro are finalized, and the regulatory framework is in place. He expects the FID to occur in the fourth quarter of this year, emphasizing that the project is very robust due to its natural hedging between liquids and gas revenues.
Q: Given the strong start to the year and the acceleration of spending in the second half, could you help us understand the shape of CapEx and activity levels for the remainder of 2026? A: Horacio Daniel Marin (Chairman and CEO) confirmed that the company will accelerate its investment program, having secured the necessary rigs and fracture sets. He stated that YPF will end the year with 19 rigs, up from the current 16, and expects to finish the year with a CapEx of around $6 billion. He also reiterated the target of reaching 250,000 barrels per day of shale oil production by December, with plans to increase to 21 rigs by February next year.
Q: What are your plans for fuel prices for the rest of the year, and should we expect maintenance to impact refinery utilization rates in the second half? A: Horacio Daniel Marin (Chairman and CEO) explained that the company's pricing policy is tied to international prices and local supply-demand dynamics, monitored through their real-time intelligence center. He noted that the "buffer" mechanism has transitioned to a compensation phase, and future adjustments will depend on the volatile oil price environment. Regarding refining, he confirmed that scheduled maintenance in the fourth quarter will normalize utilization rates to an average of around 100%, down from the record levels seen in Q2.
Q: With the improvement in drilling and fracking speeds, could you share your current drilling and completion costs, and is there still room for further efficiency gains? A: Horacio Daniel Marin (Chairman and CEO) provided a well cost of approximately $11.5 million for a 3,000-meter lateral length, noting that the company is currently using 4,500-meter laterals, which are more profitable due to efficiency gains from their real-time intelligence center. He indicated that there is still room for further efficiency improvements, driven by the company's operational excellence initiatives.
Q: With the extra cash generated this year, are you expecting to accelerate CapEx, reduce leverage, or bring forward the dividend distribution expected for 2028? A: Horacio Daniel Marin (Chairman and CEO) stated that the company prepared for low prices but benefited from a higher price environment, leading to better results. He emphasized that capital allocation remains disciplined, with a focus on operational efficiency. He confirmed that YPF is in a very good position to fund its growth projects, including Argentina LNG and Vaca Muerta evacuation infrastructure, without significant difficulties, and will provide more details at the Investor Day in April.
Q: Regarding the Vaca Muerta evacuation capacity, have there been delays to the monobuoy delivery, and could the Oldelval capacity increase sustain production if VMOS is delayed? A: Horacio Daniel Marin (Chairman and CEO) provided an update on the VMOS monobuoy, stating that the vessel is currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz and is on track, with good news expected next week. He also mentioned a "Plan B" vessel that will avoid the HPO in Dubai due to the strait. Regarding Oldelval, he confirmed that YPF will use all its capacity for its three refineries and exports, with the majority of capacity allocated to VMOS for next year's production growth.
Q: Following the incorporation of E&I and XRG into the upstream JV, what are the next key milestones towards FID for Argentina LNG? A: Horacio Daniel Marin (Chairman and CEO) reiterated that the project is technically ready for FID, with all documentation completed and the data room process with ECAs and banks underway. He confirmed that the EPC for the pipelines and the NGL plant will be awarded within two months, and all regulatory and fiscal frameworks with the provinces are finalized. He expects the FID to be reached in the fourth quarter of this year, which will be a very important milestone for YPF, its partners, and Argentina.
Q: What LNG price are you assuming for the FID, and what is the IRR target for the Argentina LNG project? A: Horacio Daniel Marin (Chairman and CEO) stated that the project is very robust, with revenues split roughly half from liquids and half from gas, providing a natural hedge. He noted that the project uses market futures prices for its assumptions, but emphasized that the project's economics are strong regardless of the specific LNG price scenario, given the diversified revenue stream.
Q: Is YPF Agro still considered a core asset, and is there a sale process ongoing? A: Horacio Daniel Marin (Chairman and CEO) explained that the bidding process for YPF Agro was not successful, so the company decided to restructure it. YPF Agro has been moved out of the downstream segment and placed under the new energies division, with plans to create a new company, YPF Agro, that will be 100% owned by YPF. He noted that they are focused on making the business more efficient and expect very good results in the future.
Q: What should be the second-half of the year refining and marketing (R&M) margins, and will we see a trajectory back to the $12 to $14 per barrel margins previously guided? A: Horacio Daniel Marin (Chairman and CEO) stated that the company does not expect R&M margins to decline to the $12 to $14 per barrel range. He attributed this to significant improvements in operational efficiency across all refineries and logistics, which he described as the best downstream system globally. He reiterated that the pricing strategy will continue to be dynamic, based on international prices and real-time demand data.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
