This article first appeared on GuruFocus .
Release Date: August 19, 2026
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
Positive Points
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Solid organic growth of 4.4% and total revenue growth of 7.3%, driven by higher occupancy and operational improvements.
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Adjusted EPS surged 88% year-over-year to SEK 2.13, reflecting strong earnings growth and share buybacks.
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Organic pipeline for new care places exceeded the full-year 2025 level in just the first half of 2026, with total pipeline revenue potential of approximately SEK 2.7 billion.
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Rolling 12-month adjusted EBITDA margin reached 10.0%, above the 9.5% target, with all four business areas contributing to EBITDA growth.
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Strong cash generation with operating cash flow of SEK 929 million, enabling dividend payments, acquisitions, and share buybacks while reducing leverage to 2.4x EBITDA.
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Successful M&A activity, including the third acquisition in Finnish child welfare and the recommended public offer for Humana, supporting growth and market consolidation.
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Continued margin improvements in Denmark (10 consecutive quarters) and Norway (Stendi), with expectations for further gains in the second half.
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New group-wide quality management system (MiraQ) rolled out to strengthen operational quality and data-driven improvements.
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High employee net promoter score and commitment to diversity and inclusion, reinforcing the employer brand.
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Improved occupancy in newly opened nursing homes in Sweden, with better-than-expected ramp-up performance.
Negative Points
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Net sales in Clara (staffing) decreased 11% due to weak demand, as customers hire their own staff instead of using external services.
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Contract management in Vardaga (Sweden) declined 3% due to the handback of two contracts to municipalities, with an annual turnover of SEK 199 million to be exited over the next 12 months.
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Occupancy in Norwegian adult care services remains slightly lower year-over-year, though more stable than last quarter.
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Margin pressure in Validia (Finland) from the start-up of the new child welfare segment and integration costs, with new unit openings in Q4 expected to further impact margins.
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Seasonality in Q2 (bank holidays in Norway and Denmark) drives higher staffing costs, affecting profitability.
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Municipalities in Norway face financial constraints, leading to changes in purchasing behavior and pressure on pricing.
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The company faces uncertainty from the upcoming Swedish elections, which could bring changes in municipal policies and procurement decisions.
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The Humana acquisition is complex and subject to regulatory and integration risks, with no additional synergies beyond the communicated SEK 120 million.
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The pipeline ramp-up takes 12-24 months, meaning new care places will not immediately contribute to revenue and margins.
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The company's growth target of 8-10% is partly dependent on continued M&A activity, which carries execution risks.
Q & A Highlights
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Q: What type of additional contracts are you expecting to sign for H2, and how should we view the trajectory of growth in the pipeline? A: Mark Jensen (CEO): We expect to sign contracts in the second half of the year. We are aiming for Vardaga to deliver in line with the full-year numbers for 2025, which means a number of new contracts for Vardaga are still to come. We also expect to sign further contracts in Altiden in Denmark, with contributions from Norway and Finland, though those additions will be more limited as care homes there are generally smaller.
Q: Given the strong performance in Stendi, and that you have communicated H2 will be better year-over-year, has the quarterly performance improved your H2 outlook? A: Mark Jensen (CEO): The outlook for the second half is basically unchanged. We have said that a margin level of 8% to 9% in Norway is a good level. We are not there yet, but the likelihood of getting into that range is higher now than it was last quarter due to the strong Q2 performance. The outlook remains positive.
Q: Regarding the Humana acquisition, do you have any update on the progress or have things changed in your view of the deal? A: Mark Jensen (CEO): We are following the plan exactly as communicated when we announced the public offer on June 29. The prospectus is scheduled to be published on August 24, with the acceptance period expected to commence on August 25. Everything is following plan, and there is nothing else to communicate on that matter.
Q: You mentioned the margin target and that you're trending above it. What's your view on that? Also, can you explain the very fast ramp-up in new care units in Sweden? A: Mark Jensen (CEO) & Benno Eliason (CFO): We are holding on to the 9.5% margin target, especially in light of the potential Humana acquisition. Changing it now is not relevant. On the ramp-up, it has been very rapid, with more or less all new establishments showing good occupancy improvement. This was partly coincidental, as municipalities closed their own nursing homes just before we opened in some areas, and one municipality had built up a queue. At least three of the five new units are already more or less full.
Q: In Validia, you mentioned margin pressure and high opening pace in H2. How should we think about the margin pressure with the new openings? A: Benno Eliason (CFO): The margin pressure comes from the new child welfare segment, where profitability is currently lower, and there are transaction and integration costs related to acquisitions. That will improve gradually. In the second half, we are opening two new units in early Q4, which will short-term hurt margins due to full rental costs with gradually incoming occupancy. In Q3, the margin pressure from child welfare should ease, but the impact of the new Q4 openings remains to be seen.
Q: Regarding the contract terminations in Vardaga, can you clarify the underlying reasonis it your decision, competition, or municipalities bringing operations in-house? A: Benno Eliason (CFO): The contracts run out at a certain point, and municipalities can decide to take them back. Of the seven or eight units, more than half are being taken back by municipalities to run themselves. A couple were lost in re-tenders to another operator, in this case a non-listed operator with lower prices. It's a combination of these two factors.
Q: In Nytida, have you seen any shifts in the length of stay or average age of children in childcare? A: Mark Jensen (CEO): Not particularly. There is a general tendency towards somewhat lower length of stay across social care services, but it's very individual. The majority of Nytida's services are in disability care, where stays are often lifelong, so we are not highly exposed to shorter stays, which are predominantly in individual and family care. I would not flag it as a risk for the coming quarters.
Q: On the Humana acquisition, you guided for about 120 million in synergies, mainly related to overhead. Do you see additional operational synergies within the business areas? A: Mark Jensen (CEO): We have no other view than what we communicated on June 29. The 120 million in synergies is predominantly in group functions and group costs. We also confirmed the financial targets, holding on to the 9.5% EBITDA margin target, and believe we will be back at that level on a one-way basis by the end of 2028, which will include some operational improvements to get there.
Q: Have you noticed any changes in dialogues with municipalities or regions over the past year or two, especially with the upcoming Swedish election? A: Mark Jensen (CEO): Over the last election term, it has been quite stable with no big surprises. We hear from more municipalities that needs are increasing, and it is increasingly difficult to get permits to move into nursing homes. The welfare services are more constrained from a municipal perspective as they look for ways to handle demographic pressure. We are certain that with our qualitative services, there will be a higher need to use us in the mix going forward.
Q: In Stendi, what is constraining the occupancy in adult care, which is still down year-over-year? A: Mark Jensen (CEO): The financial situation of municipalities in Norway is increasingly constrained, especially for the many small municipalities. Some have changed their purchasing behavior, and we are adapting by focusing on units with high capacity to deliver high-quality care at a price municipalities can afford. These changes are giving impact this quarter and will continue in the coming quarters.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
