For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Viatris (VTRS) and Eli Lilly both raised their 2026 sales forecasts in their latest reports. Viatris stock returned 91.9% over the year to October 30, 2026, putting it ahead of Lilly's 75.3%. Yet the two earn from medicines in different ways. Lilly earns mostly from Mounjaro and Zepbound. Viatris earns from generics and established brands, with two drugs it hopes will be blockbusters still in trials. So how big was each company's raise to its forecasts, and what is behind it?
How Far Did Viatris And Eli Lilly Raise Forecasts?
Eli Lilly raised its 2026 revenue forecast by far more than Viatris did. On October 29, 2026, the company moved its midpoint to $91.5 billion, up from $86 billion in August. Management also said about $2 billion of its 2026 revenue comes from one-time items, mainly milestone payments and changes in estimates for rebates, that it does not expect to recur. Lilly did trim its earnings per share forecast. Management tied that reduction to charges for research it acquired in the third quarter.
Viatris raised its 2026 forecasts for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS and free cash flow on August 6, 2026, but its revenue forecast moved only to $14.75 billion at the midpoint, from $14.7 billion. Management said the midpoint implies about 2% operational revenue growth. Viatris also expects supply disruptions, including at its Nashik plant after a first-quarter fire, to cost $100 million to $150 million in second-half revenue.
The two raises are different news. Lilly's adds to a business already growing fast, while Viatris's is a small lift for a slow-growing business, made in spite of a hit to its supply.
Viatris Has Thinner Margins And Relatively More Debt
Viatris kept 0.886% of its sales as operating profit over the twelve months to June 30, 2026, against 51.3% for Eli Lilly over its twelve months to September 30, excluding charges for acquired research. The June quarter was better for Viatris, at 2.0%, after operating losses in the two quarters before it.
Viatris's total debt also equals 61.5% of its market value, against 3.9% for Lilly. Lilly, meanwhile, is spending on growth. It has broken ground on two new plants in Houston, Texas, and Richmond, Virginia.
Viatris does generate cash. Its free cash flow over the past twelve months equaled 8.2% of its market value at the October 30 close, against 0.925% for Lilly. That cash, rather than its thin operating profit, is what a Viatris holder is relying on.
Where Does Each Company Come Out Ahead?
Eli Lilly leads on growth as well as on margin and debt. Its revenue grew 45.5% over its latest twelve months, against 4.4% for Viatris. Over the past three years, Lilly's revenue growth averaged 39.4% a year, while Viatris's sales shrank by 1.8% a year on average.
Viatris leads on price. Its shares trade at 1.5 times sales , against 14.6 times for Lilly. Viatris also raised more of its main 2026 forecasts than Lilly did, though its revenue raise was far smaller.
On these measures, Lilly is ahead on the business and Viatris on the price you pay for it. The case for Lilly is growth already showing in its results. The case for Viatris is a low price, paid for with slow sales and heavy debt.
Viatris could change that balance with its own pipeline. Management says selatogrel and cenerimod, if successful, would be blockbuster growth opportunities. It expects Phase III results for cenerimod in the first half of 2027, and expects selatogrel's Phase III trial to finish enrolling by the end of 2026. It is also buying growth: on October 8, 2026, Viatris agreed to buy Pacira BioSciences for $1.65 billion in cash, adding two marketed pain medicines, and it began its tender offer on October 30.
Want A Second Look At What You Own?
Viatris is one decision in a portfolio. Whether you work with an advisor or manage your money yourself, a second look at the whole portfolio costs nothing. Our partner advisory firm offers a free written review of your holdings, fees, and income plan, with no need to switch.
Spot an error or want more like this? Tell us in 10 seconds .
