ChemoMetec AS (STU:CHY) (Q4 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and Cautious ...

Negative Points

• Consumables revenue declined 4%, primarily due to the US federal government shutdown in fall 2025, which reduced patient treatments at large customers.

• US and Canada revenue decreased 6% in reported terms, and the animal semen, beer, and milk business declined 32% as ChemoMetec continues its exit from that market.

• The company missed its original FY25/26 guidance of DKK565-580 million, ending at DKK511 million, due to delayed XM orders and market challenges, leading to a cautious FY26/27 outlook.

• Several large players like Novo Nordisk, Galapagos, and Takeda exited the cell therapy market, and some clinical trials were canceled due to NIH funding cuts, impacting revenue.

• CapEx is expected to rise to DKK120 million in FY26/27, over 20% of revenue, with continued high investments in software, automation, and product development, which may pressure margins.

Q & A Highlights

Q: Could you help us understand the assumptions behind the FY26/27 guidance? Do you expect Instrument sales growth in XM and NC to be the main growth driver, while Consumables and Services continue to decline? And what would need to happen for you to end up at the upper versus lower end of the guidance range? A: CEO Martin Behrens explained that the guidance is built on lessons learned from last year's downgrade, with a focus on the worst-case scenario to avoid disappointing investors again. Instrument sales are expected to grow first, since Consumables and Service growth require an installed base of instruments. No contribution from the Roche, Tecan, and Hamilton collaborations is included in the guidance due to lack of visibility, so any revenue from those would be upside. He noted the market improvement is only a couple of months old, so the company remains cautiously optimistic.

Q: You recently announced the discontinuation of the NC-200 platform with sales ending in April '27 and service ending in April '29. Some labs have started making last-time buys ahead of the April '27 deadline. Should we expect this to drive any meaningful uplift in instrument sales over the coming quarters? A: CEO Martin Behrens confirmed that some last-time buys are expected, since customers producing with the NC-200 need to secure instruments to cover the lag over the next couple of years, alongside NC-203 sales for validation. However, he stressed that estimating the timing and size of these orders is difficult, and the company is deliberately more cautious than last year, when it believed customer estimates that did not materialize.

Q: What about the pushed XM orders that triggered the profit warning last year? The old FY25/26 guidance was DKK565 million to DKK580 million, but you ended at DKK511 million, and the new guidance points to DKK560 million at the midpoint for FY26/27. What happened to those XM orders, and are you not counting on them materializing this year? A: CEO Martin Behrens said the orders simply have not been received yet, and the company will wait until it sees purchase orders before communicating them to investors. He noted that validations can run for years, and while customers will eventually buy more instruments, the timing is very difficult to estimate. As a result, these potential orders are not included in the guidance.

Q: On the Roche collaboration, how far along are you, and when do you expect commercialization to begin? Is the validation process different or easier compared with a standard customer validation process? A: CEO Martin Behrens said the company is limited in what it can disclose and has no volume numbers, but expects to start selling in 2027. The validation is challenging because the XcytoMatic replaces a trypan blue-based instrument, and differences between the methods must be documented. ChemoMetec has invested R&D to develop protocols that ease the tech transfer for customers, and since the legacy product is leaving the market, customers have no option but to validate.

Q: On the Roche collaboration, given the significantly higher throughput of XcytoMatic compared with the legacy Cedex HiRes, how should we think about the replacement ratio? Is there any reason to expect something close to one-for-one, or should we assume materially fewer XcytoMatic units will be needed? A: CEO Martin Behrens explained that when integrated into the Cedex Bio analyzer, it is a one-to-one replacement. However, when replacing competitor instruments in stand-alone setups, one ChemoMetec instrument can often replace two older instruments because of its speed, which is a significant selling point for customers.

Q: How do you view Novartis pausing some of its CGT programs, including YTB323 in DLBCL and PHE885 in multiple myeloma, as well as BMS pausing some cell therapy programs, in terms of signals for the broader CGT market and platforms such as T-Charge? Have you seen any impact on ChemoMetec activity or demand from Novartis, BMS, or related programs? A: CEO Martin Behrens said that with more than 3,000 ongoing trials, some Phase I and Phase II programs will inevitably face issues, and this is not a cause for major concern. He noted that in vivo therapies differ from ex vivo approaches since expansion happens inside the body, and issues are expected when developing an entirely new way of producing drugs. He added that platforms like T-Charge and BMS's NEXT have many drugs, and only a couple have faced issues, so the platforms themselves are not facing major problems.

Q: Please help me understand what the underlying Consumable growth was excluding legacy areas such as animal reproduction, the government shutdown, and large customers leaving the market. A: CEO Martin Behrens said that looking at the life science segment alone, growth was solid, and excluding the shutdowns and the non-focus legacy areas of semen, milk, and beer, underlying growth would likely be around 15% for life science alone, above the roughly 10% reported. Consumables also took a hit from customer closures, so that figure would have been higher as well.

Q: How many customers are you speaking to on the XM platform, and how does that compare to the beginning of the year? How many potential instruments does that equate to? A: CEO Martin Behrens said the company is now talking to hundreds of customers, well above 100, and the key difference from last year is that customers are proactively reaching out about integration opportunities rather than needing to be shown the product first. He cited strong interest in integrating the XM30 into Hamilton systems, with significantly more demand and validations than a year ago.

Q: You mentioned seeing improved demand towards the year-end. Can you elaborate on whether demand improved for both NC and XM instruments? A: CEO Martin Behrens said the improvement was mainly for XM instruments, driven by the NC-200 discontinuation, market improvements, and validations completed prior to this year. He expects XM to be the leading instrument in the future and to likely exceed NC sales next year.

Q: You are guiding for around DKK120 million of CapEx in FY26/27, up from around DKK100 million, equivalent to more than 20% of revenue. How much relates to software development, how long should CapEx remain above 20% of revenue, and what would be a normalized level once current investments are completed? A: CEO Martin Behrens said the split is fairly even across areas, with software likely representing 20

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .