Pfizer (PFE) has drawn fresh attention after the FDA approved its 2026 to 2027 COMIRNATY XFG COVID-19 vaccine formula for high risk age groups, adding a new chapter to the company's vaccine story.
Pfizer's recent FDA approval adds to a string of positive updates that helped lift the share price to around a two year high, with a 30 day share price return of 13.38% and year to date share price return of 14.42%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 25.63% contrasts with a weaker 5 year total shareholder return that is down 18.45%, suggesting momentum has improved in the short term even as longer term holders have seen mixed results.
Spot 37 healthcare AI stocks that, like Pfizer, are tying real FDA milestones to AI driven R&D progress in vaccines and next generation therapies.
After Pfizer's sharp rebound and fresh vaccine approval, the stock has shifted from a recovery story to a reassessment territory. Does the current valuation still leave enough upside to justify the risks you are taking from here?
Most Popular Narrative: 1.3% Undervalued
Pfizer's most followed valuation narrative puts fair value at about $29.19 per share, which is slightly above the last close of $28.81, and frames the recent rally as broadly in line with that estimate.
Strategic business development and licensing (such as the 3SBio bispecific antibody deal and ongoing portfolio additions in high-value areas like oncology, immunology, and obesity) support revenue diversification and lifecycle management, mitigating the impact of patent expirations and increasing net margins via synergies and optimized product mix.
Want to understand why this narrative still lands close to fair value even as revenue is expected to decline while margins and valuation multiples pull in different directions? The answer lies in how future earnings, profitability and a higher assumed P/E all interact under a 7.1% discount rate to reach that $29.19 figure.
Result: Fair Value of $29.19 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the story around Pfizer can shift quickly if regulatory pricing pressure bites harder than expected or if key patent expiries erode earnings faster than analysts model.
Find out about the key risks to this Pfizer narrative.
Another View On Pfizer Using Market Multiples
While the popular narrative suggests Pfizer is around 1.3% undervalued, the current P/E of 37.8x tells a tougher story. It is well above the US Pharmaceuticals industry on 16.5x and above a fair ratio of 28.4x, which points to meaningful valuation risk if sentiment cools.
That sort of premium can sometimes close quickly when expectations reset. It is worth asking how confident you are that Pfizer can grow into this multiple before the market moves toward that fair ratio. See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
With sentiment on Pfizer now finely balanced between recent gains and lingering questions, it may be helpful to move quickly and review the numbers yourself. Consider both sides by reviewing the 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs .
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include PFE .
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