Stifel, the broker, has kept its 'buy' rating and CHF25 target price on Santhera Pharmaceuticals (SIX:SANN, OTC:SPHDF, FRA:S3F0), the Swiss neuromuscular drugmaker, after first-half group revenue doubled to CHF48.3 million.
The company left its 2026 guidance of CHF80 million to CHF90 million unchanged.
Direct sales of Agamree, Santhera's treatment for Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD), a genetic muscle-wasting disease, rose 48% to CHF17.2 million, in line with guidance for growth above 50% this year.
Germany, the largest market, saw volumes rise more than 50%, more than offsetting a 17% price cut that took effect on 1 January.
A further industry-wide price cut of 15.5% is expected in Germany on 1 January 2027, which Stifel expects continued strong volume growth and a wider European rollout in the UK, Spain and Italy to offset.
Stifel estimates US sales of Agamree, marketed by Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, at about $77 million in the first half, ahead of Catalyst's initial full-year guidance of $140 million to $150 million.
Angelini Pharma is acquiring Catalyst for $4.1 billion, a deal Stifel regards as validation of Agamree's growth prospects.
Santhera has set a 2030 revenue target of CHF250 million, about 28% above Stifel's estimate of CHF196 million, and still expects CHF140 million in 2028 against Stifel's CHF128 million.
Cash of CHF41.8 million at 30 June is sufficient to reach sustainable profitability, although the German price cut and inventory purchases will reduce cash in the first half of 2027.
Stifel cut its 2026 earnings per share estimate by 33.2% and raised its 2027 figure by 20.9%.
Stifel forecasts revenue of CHF85.1 million in 2026 and CHF104.1 million in 2027, and sees an attractive entry point at 3.2 times enterprise value (market value plus net debt) to sales.
