This article first appeared on GuruFocus .
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Production:~2.2 million ounces year-to-date through September, nearly flat year-over-year excluding Serra Grande divestment.
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Q3 Production Impact:~24,000 ounces lost at 2C pit (flooding); ~30,000 ounces lower at Sukari versus Q3 2025; Obuasi affected by KMS shaft issues and fatality-related disruptions.
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Cash Costs:$1,534/oz for Q3; year-to-date up 20% to $1,467/oz versus $1,224/oz prior year; inflation, fuel, royalties and FX added ~$201/oz (16%).
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Controllable Costs:Down ~$75/oz year-to-date at managed operations; Q3 controllable costs up $39/oz for nine months due to lower volumes.
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Free Cash Flow:$722 million in Q3; $2.6 billion year-to-date versus $920 million in Q3 2025.
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EBITDA:Up 12% to $1.6 billion, driven by higher realized gold prices, stronger Kibali JV earnings and lower legacy tailings costs.
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Basic EPS:Up 17% year-over-year to $0.154 from $0.132 in Q3 2025.
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Earnings:Just under $800 million for the quarter.
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CapEx:Up 45% year-on-year to $563 million in Q3 ($352 million sustaining, $211 million growth); total CapEx cited at $497 million in one reference.
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Net Cash:Just under $1.3 billion ($1.26 billion), up more than $1 billion from end-September last year; $4.5 billion liquidity buffer.
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Dividends:Q3 dividend of $361 million declared; year-to-date over $1.3 billion, ~3x all of 2024; quarterly base payout of $12.5/share (~$63 million) plus annual true-up to 50% of free cash flow.
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Share Buyback:$2 billion open market program approved; ~$700 million of long-term debt retired in April.
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Tax Outflow:$619 million for the period.
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Revenue Impact:Lower sales volumes reduced revenue by $444 million, partly offset by $2.3 billion gold price tailwind.
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Tier 1 Assets:>70% of total production; 68% cash margins; ~80% of mineral reserves.
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Tier 2 Assets:54% cash margin.
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Realized Inflation:Internal rate just above 6%; US CPI 3.7% in September.
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Growth Pipeline:Targeting >400,000 ounces additional annual production by 2029-2030 (Obuasi +130,000 oz; Siguiri +100,000 oz; Geita +100,000 oz; Cuiaba +75,000 oz; North Bullfrog initial 80,000 oz).
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Guidance:Full-year production reaffirmed near midpoint of guidance; cash cost guidance intact.
Release Date: November 05, 2026
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
Positive Points
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Anglogold Ashanti PLC ( NYSE:AU ) generated strong free cash flow of $722 million in Q3 2026 and $2.6 billion year-to-date, demonstrating robust cash generation.
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The company declared over $1.3 billion in dividends year-to-date, around three times the total paid in all of 2024, reflecting a sector-leading yield.
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Anglogold Ashanti PLC ( NYSE:AU ) maintains a strong balance sheet with net cash of $1.26 billion and $4.5 billion in liquidity, fully funding its investment requirements.
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The company reaffirmed full-year production guidance, expecting to be very close to the midpoint, with a stronger Q4 anticipated after resolving temporary operational issues.
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Anglogold Ashanti PLC ( NYSE:AU ) has a low-risk organic growth pipeline targeting over 400,000 ounces of additional annual production by 2029-2030, with high returns (e.g., Gaeta project IRR north of 35%).
Negative Points
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Anglogold Ashanti PLC ( NYSE:AU ) reported a fatality at the Sukari mine in August, leading to a suspension of underground operations and a 30,000-ounce production shortfall in Q3.
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Q3 production was impacted by temporary issues at three operations (flooding at Iduapriem, operational challenges at Obuasi, and the Sukari suspension), resulting in lower sales volumes.
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Cash costs increased 20% year-on-year to $1,467 per ounce, driven by inflation, higher fuel prices, royalties, and FX changes, with all-in sustaining costs expected at the upper end of guidance.
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The company faces persistent inflationary pressures, with internal realized inflation just above 6%, and volatile fuel prices and gold price royalties impacting costs.
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The Sukari expansion plan has been delayed as the company redraws the mine plan, and its inclusion in the growth pipeline remains uncertain, potentially limiting upside.
Q & A Highlights
Q: Can you confirm that all approvals were received to start the $2 billion buyback, and how do you respond to skepticism around buybacks as a capital return tool? A: CEO Alberto Calderon confirmed the final approval was received in September from South African authorities, though the company was in a closed period at the time; all permissions are now in place to proceed. He stressed that dividends remain the primary distribution vehicle (50% of free cash flow, typically 60%-65%), while the buyback is a more opportunistic mechanism biased to the downside. He noted his discussion with BlackRock was not inconsistent with their view, emphasizing buybacks must be a thoughtful, value-accretive process.
Q: The 300,000-450,000 ounce brownfield growth plan excludes Sukari, which was previously flagged as part of the program. Could a Sukari expansion push growth closer to 500,000 ounces, or is it more about replacing existing production? A: CEO Alberto Calderon declined to commit to a number, saying the company is almost completely redrawing the Sukari mine plan to optimize a 5-to-10-year window, with the new plan to be delivered next year. He said he is optimistic and sees Sukari ultimately north of 500,000 ounces long term, but would not specify how much it adds to the 400,000-ounce pipeline already in place without Sukari.
Q: At the H1 2026 results you guided to H2-weighted production. Is that still the case given Q3 production levels, and are you comfortable H2 will beat H1? A: CEO Alberto Calderon said the company is guiding to very close to the midpoint of full-year guidance, and that doing the sums shows production remains weighted to the second half despite the Q3 setbacks.
Q: How comfortable are you with all-in sustaining cost guidance? A: CFO Gillian Doran said that based on current forecasts, AISC is tracking at the upper end of full-year guidance, with outcomes dependent on fuel price volatility and gold-price-linked royalties in the coming weeks. CEO Alberto Calderon added that controllable costs remain well managed, with deviations driven by fuel, royalties and other macro factors, and that the company continues to monitor uncontrollables closely.
Q: What is your view on the political climate in Ghana, and are you seeing a more interventionist stance from the government? A: CEO Alberto Calderon said the company's reality differs from market perception. While royalties were increased, the inefficient COVID levy was reduced following constructive discussions, and communication with the government and mining commissioner remains strong. He noted Obuasi's lease runs to 2050 and Iduapriem's to 2035, so no renewals are imminent, and he has no concerns about lease renewals given the constructive relationship.
Q: Can you provide an update on Sukari electrification to the Egypt grid, and are there further solar electrification plans to reduce diesel reliance? A: COO Marcelo Pereira said detailed engineering on the Sukari grid connection is expected to conclude by the end of this quarter, after which feasibility and implementation will be confirmed. Chief Sustainability and Corporate Affairs Officer Stewart Bailey added that a large solar project in Ghana is advanced to supply green energy to Iduapriem and Obuasi, and a solar and biogas project in Siguiri is in very advanced stages, reducing diesel reliance while supporting an alternative livelihoods program in Guinea.
Q: How comfortable are you renewing leases in Ghana generally? A: CEO Alberto Calderon said discussions with the government and mining commissioner are very constructive, with no reason for concern. He noted the nearest renewal is roughly nine years away, and even if it were a year out, the constructive nature of the dialogue means it would not be an issue.
Q: With the buyback now approved, how do you view the balance between buybacks and dividends, and is the buyback viewed with skepticism in the UK or US? A: CEO Alberto Calderon reiterated that dividends are the main distribution mechanism, with the company typically paying out 60%-65% of free cash flow versus the 50% policy minimum. The buyback is opportunistic and biased to the downside, and he emphasized it must be executed thoughtfully to ensure it is value-creative rather than a routine popular measure.
Q: Can you comment on the status of the growth projects and your confidence in delivering them? A: CEO Alberto Calderon said that except for Gaeta, all the growth projects are in very advanced stages in execution or already in production making them well-known, low-risk and high-return. He highlighted the combined brownfield pipeline as among the lowest capital intensity in the industry, with the most capital-intensive project, Gaeta, delivering a real IRR north of 35% against a $3,000 per ounce long-term price assumption.
Q: How do you view the company's cost performance and outlook heading into year-end? A: CEO Alberto Calderon said macro factors fuel, royalties, inflation and FX added more than $200 per ounce to cash costs, but the company has reduced controllable costs every year since 2021 and expects them to be slightly lower again this year. He reaffirmed production guidance very close to the midpoint, noted October was a strong month, and said the company has solid plans to finish November and December strongly.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript .
