Air cargo demand between Asia and North America surged 13.2 percent in August, extending a seven-month growth streak and putting additional pressure on trans-Pacific capacity as retailers and brands enter the fourth-quarter peak season.
The Asia-North America trade lane recorded the fastest growth of any major air cargo corridor tracked by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) last month, accounting for 23.5 percent of global industry cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs) moved via air.
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At the same time, global air cargo capacity declined 0.1 percent year over year, creating an increasingly tight relationship between demand and available space as the industry heads into the final months of the year.
The broader North American market is showing the same imbalance. Cargo demand at North American carriers increased 6.6 percent in August, the strongest growth of any region, while capacity fell 2.5 percent. Globally, demand rose 4.4 percent alongside the worldwide capacity slippage, lifting the industrywide cargo load factor by two percentage points to 46 percent.
That demand-capacity gap is already translating into more constrained freight conditions. Dimerco's October Asia Pacific Freight Report describes air capacity to the U.S. as "tight" from most Asian origins, with rates firming up for flights entering airports in Los Angeles, San Francisco and New York.
The freight forwarder expects that pressure to build as the fourth quarter progresses, with air freight demand coming largely from e-commerce, seasonal retail, technology, AI infrastructure and semiconductor cargo.
"Bookings look quiet right now, but that's the calm before the door opens," Kathy Liu, Dimerco's vice president of global sales and marketing, said in the report.
There are several potential sources of pressure, Liu pointed out. Dimerco expects greater clarity around the tariff environment to release China-U.S. shipments that have been held back as the trans-Pacific space begins to tighten. At the same time, the forwarder said ocean freight congestion has become severe enough to push more cargo toward air, particularly on trans-Pacific and intra-Asia routes.
The tightening trans-Pacific market is also unfolding against the expensive fuel backdrop experienced since the war in Iran began in late February. Jet fuel prices were 79.2 percent higher than a year earlier in August at $157 per barrel, according to IATA, marking the highest reading for the month in 13 years. The benchmark increased 8.3 percent from the month prior. As a result, global air cargo yields rose 1.3 percent from the month prior, and stood 24.9 percent higher than the year-ago period.
"Strong demand and higher load factors helped airlines to recoup some of the exceptionally high fuel costs," said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA's senior vice president of sustainability and chief economist. "Yields rose month-on-month for the first time since April, while global goods trade growth continues. Both are positive signs as the year-end peak season comes into view."
The composition of that demand is changing, particularly as e-commerce flows still adjust to trade policy changes.
Aevean, an aviation and logistics strategy consultancy, found that China's e-commerce air cargo volumes fell 16 percent year over year in August, the steepest annual decline it has recorded since the company's launch in October 2024.
The decline was driven primarily by a 40 percent drop in volumes to Europe, while flows to Asia-Pacific, North and Latin America, the Middle East and South Asia were flat or declined more modestly. Africa was the lone major growth market, up 71 percent from a small base.
That sharp decline in China-Europe e-commerce volumes came as the European Union changed the economics of low-value imports.
On July 1, the EU removed its duty-free de minimis exemption that applied to shipments worth 150 euros, introducing a 3-euro customs tax on low-value imports.
IATA said the change coincided with a slowdown in Europe-Asia air cargo growth. While demand on the lane still increased 3.1 percent in August and was unchanged from July, the figures are well below the double-digit growth rates recorded during the preceding 11 months. IATA said the new duty "may have tempered e-commerce flows into Europe."
The broader Europe-Asia air cargo market is still growing even as the China-to-Europe e-commerce component contracts. Europe-Asia represented 21.5 percent of global industry CTKs in August and has now recorded 42 consecutive months of growth.
Dimerco's report offers some evidence of what that softer European market looks like operationally. In East China, the forwarder said airlines were shifting capacity into Frankfurt and Amsterdam as volumes softened there, while Asia-Europe spot rates continued to fall as carriers resumed Suez Canal transits.
Its European market forecast also shows air capacity from the Netherlands, Germany and the U.K. to Asia as soft, with stable rates, while trans-Atlantic capacity is in an upturn with rates rising.
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