Quick Read
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SLV has plunged 57% from its 52-week high of $109.83 as silver trades 58% below its January record of $121.64.
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CME FedWatch prices a 75% to 86% chance of a December rate hike, raising the cost of holding yield-free silver.
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JPMorgan expects solar demand for silver to fall 30%, roughly 60 million ounces, threatening to flip the market from deficit to oversupply.
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Silver fell 2.29% to $50.95 on Friday, October 30, 2026. That is its lowest price since November 2025 and roughly 58% below its record of $121.64.
The record came on January 29, 2026, with prices ranging from $121.58 to $121.67 depending on the venue. Within about 30 hours, silver fell more than 30% and traded below $75 on January 30.
The selling sped up on Thursday, October 29, when spot silver fell about 3.5% to near $52. The iShares Silver Trust( NYSEARCA:SLV ) lost 3.63% to close at $47.28, then slid to $46.80 after hours.
Gold fell about 1.3% to roughly $4,010, and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF( NYSEARCA:GDX ) dropped 3.12% to $81.33. SLV holders own a metal that looks deeply oversold, yet none of the forces behind the drop have turned.
Fed Hike Odds Are Driving the Sell-Off
Thursday's drop came even as the dollar index fell 0.33% and the 10-year yield eased to 4.94%. Both moves usually help silver, which leaves the Fed as the source of the pressure.
The Federal Reserve, on October 28, held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10-2 vote. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented, wanting an immediate quarter-point hike. CME FedWatch prices roughly a 75% chance of a December hike, and some reported odds run as high as 86%.
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Silver pays no yield, so every expected rate increase raises the cost of holding it instead of cash or Treasuries. Inflation usually helps precious metals, but September PCE prices rose 0.5% for the month, and annual inflation went up to 3.6% from 3.4%. Third-quarter GDP also grew at a 3.4% annualized pace versus a 3.2% forecast, and that hot data raises hike odds, which does silver more harm than inflation does good.
Why Silver Falls Harder Than Gold
Gold sits about 28% below its 2026 record of $5,598.58. Silver is part industrial metal and part monetary metal, trades in a smaller market and draws leveraged speculators, so its moves run larger.
The January surge brought in that leverage, and higher margin requirements later forced traders to sell (riding a mania is one thing, planning the exit is the harder half, which is the whole subject of our free bubble survivor's handbook). "The increase in margin money requirement at COMEX and MCX in February and March had already dampened the sentiments," said Vikas Prakash Singh, a professor of economics at Great Lakes Institute of Management.
JPMorgan( NYSE:JPM ) expects silver demand from solar panel makers to fall 30% this year, or roughly 60 million ounces. The bank warns the market could flip from a structural deficit to oversupply, and that deficit was the core of the bull case.
Oversold Readings Still Need a Catalyst
As of October 27, LSEG data showed silver 25% below its 200-day moving average, a long-run trend line. That was the widest gap since the March 2020 pandemic liquidity crunch.
Managed-money net longs, meaning the bullish positions held by speculators, are at their lowest since the first quarter of 2024, which can fuel a rebound once cooler inflation or falling hike odds show up. VT Markets principal analyst Daniel Munday calls $50 critical because the rally began there last November.
What Could Turn SLV Around Before Silver Breaks $50
SLV holds physical silver, pays no income and charges an annual fee, so it tracks the metal closely. Through the October 29 close, it had fallen 26.61% year to date and 14.78% over one month, leaving it about 57% below its 52-week high of $109.83. The fund holds $26.61 billion in assets.
SLV is still up 9.37% over one year, and spot silver is up about 4.4% over 12 months. But silver's October slide of about 15.8% has it on track for a second straight monthly loss.
Hike odds and weaker solar demand still point lower for silver, although thin speculator positioning leaves room for a rebound once the Fed outlook cools off, and short-term Treasuries pay income while hike odds stay high.
A turn in silver's trend would likely require the metal to hold $50 and December hike odds to drop well below 75%, so those are the two signals to watch.
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