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Ultra-Rich Shift $90 Billion Focus Toward Conflict Economy Bets

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This article first appeared on GuruFocus .

Members of the world's ultra-wealthy are starting to reposition capital around the pressure points of a more volatile global order, with energy, metals, defense technology and geographic diversification moving higher on the private-investment agenda. Jaime Gilinski, Colombia's richest man, has repeatedly increased his stake in Latin American independent oil and gas producer GeoPark Ltd. ( NYSE:GPRK ) after he and his son made a $107 million investment in March, with the company viewed as a possible vehicle for entering Venezuela's recovering oil sector. At the same time, a family office for the heirs of Swedish oil and mining tycoon Adolf Lundin spent almost C$40 million, or $29.5 million, in March to increase its holdings in Vancouver-based copper and diamond mining companies, as supply-chain squeezes helped support prices for natural resources.

The same geopolitical backdrop is also pulling capital toward defense startups. Investment firms tied to the dynasties behind Ferrari NV ( NYSE:RACE ) and Cox Enterprises backed companies in recent months including Hermeus Corp., which is seeking to build the fastest uncrewed jet aircraft ever for the US Department of Defense. Together, the four families have a collective net worth of about $90 billion, with multi-generational fortunes stretching back as far as 1898, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. The message for investors could be that geopolitical disruption is no longer just a headline risk; it is increasingly becoming an asset-allocation theme for some of the world's richest private investors.

Oil, gold and silver have all rallied this year as global trade disruptions and safe-haven demand intensified following President Donald Trump's efforts involving Venezuela leader Nicolas Maduro, Greenland and Iran. Mexico's richest man, Carlos Slim, is among the billionaires already seeing outsized gains from these financial shocks, while global political uncertainty has helped add more than $20 billion to the collective fortunes of individuals and families with stakes in listed defense businesses this year. A JPMorgan Chase & Co. ( NYSE:JPM ) survey of 333 investment firms for the super-rich published in February found that one in five ranked geopolitics as their top risk, ahead of liquidity and inflation, while other wealthy families, including the billionaire family behind Porsche AG and Volkswagen AG, have moved toward defense startup investing. Family offices are also trying to reduce risk by expanding across more locations, with Belgian flooring tycoon Filip Balcaen's family office growing its private equity team in the US and a KPMG-Agreus Group report showing almost half of surveyed family offices now operate in more than one location, up from about a third in 2023.

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