Key Takeaways
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CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has produced a second early bull signal, which analyst CW associates with previous bottom-forming phases.
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The first 2026 signal appeared in May when Bitcoin traded near $81,700, but BTC subsequently fell almost 30% to a June low near $57,800.
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $178 million in net inflows on Aug. 11, providing one potential confirmation signal, but macro and price risks remain.
Bitcoin is flashing another potential bottom signal after a correction that has erased almost half of its value from the 2025 record high, but the same indicator's performance earlier this year shows why confirmation still matters.
CryptoQuant highlighted a second "early bull" signal from its Bull -Bear Market Cycle Indicator on Aug. 12. Analyst CW8900 argued that historically, the second signal has appeared during periods when Bitcoin was forming a bottom and beginning a new uptrend.
Bitcoin traded around $63,599 on Wednesday, down slightly as investors awaited US inflation data and monitored renewed geopolitical tensions involving Iran.
First 2026 Bull Signal Did Not Mark the Bottom
The latest signal deserves one major qualification. CW8900 identified the first early bull signal on May 11, the first such reading since early 2023. Bitcoin closed that day around $81,727.
It was far too early to call the final bottom. Bitcoin subsequently fell to approximately $57,803 in June, meaning BTC lost another 29% after the first signal appeared. Bitfinex described the June move as Bitcoin's worst June since 2022, accompanied by weakening spot demand and a six-week streak of ETF outflows.
CryptoQuant itself has previously cautioned that the indicator is not infallible. A similar early-bull transition appeared in March 2022, only for Bitcoin to be rejected and continue falling later that year.
That makes the latest reading a potential regime-change signal rather than proof that the low is already in.
ETF Flows Offer an Early Confirmation
One difference from the earlier deterioration is that institutional flows have recently improved .
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $178 million in net inflows on Aug. 11, extending their positive streak to four consecutive trading days. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for roughly $138 million of the daily total.
If those inflows continue while Bitcoin holds above its June low, the combination would strengthen the argument that demand is rebuilding rather than BTC merely experiencing another temporary bounce.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has also argued that Bitcoin is approaching a turning point. But his view is more cautious than a definitive bottom call. Hougan has described the market as bottoming and acknowledged that BTC could still trade into the $50,000s before a durable recovery develops.
What Confirms a Bitcoin Bottom?
The immediate line in the sand remains the $57,800 to $60,000 region established during the June selloff.
Holding that area while ETF demand expands would support CryptoQuant's second-bull-signal thesis. A renewed breakdown toward or below the June low would instead show that the indicator has again arrived before the market completed its correction.
For now, the data is improving, but the May experience offers a clear warning: an early bull signal can identify a bottoming process without identifying the actual bottom.
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The post Bitcoin Bulls Get a Lifeline at $63.5K as CryptoQuant Flashes Second Early Bull Signal appeared first on ccn.com .
