Bitcoin Price Forecast: Hot US Inflation Threatens BTC Drop Below $80K

Bitcoin ( BTC ) is facing renewed selling pressure after hotter-than-expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data reignited fears of persistent macroeconomic inflation.

US Inflation Report Triggers Macro Headwinds for Crypto

Bitcoin dipped by over 1% shortly after the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data's release on Wednesday.

The report delivered a hotter-than-expected inflation print, reigniting hawkish fears across global financial markets. Headline CPI accelerated to 3.6% year-over-year (YoY),up from 3.4% previously, and rose 0.6% month-over-month (MoM), driven largely by a 9.1% surge in gasoline prices.

Meanwhile, Core CPI (excluding food and energy) held sticky at 2.6% YoY.

Following the report, market expectations for Federal Reserve monetary policy shifted rapidly:

• CME FedWatch Rate Hike Odds Spike:According to the CME FedWatch Tool , traders rapidly repriced interest rate expectations, pushing the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hikeat the upcoming October 28 FOMC meetingto over 50%,up from just ~20% earlier in the week.

• Rate Cut Hopes Evaporate:The odds of Fed interest rate cuts before year-end have plunged, turning the next monetary policy decision into a near coin-flip between a pause and an active rate hike.

• Yields & Dollar Surge:U.S. 10-year Treasury yields firmed, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened, draining liquidity from high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

Bear Flag Breakdown Points to $78.2K

The 4-hour BTC/USDT perpetual chart displays a textbook bearish continuation setup. Following an initial impulse decline from the $86,000local peak down to $81,000, price action consolidated within a narrow, upward-sloping channel. This structural behavior forms a clear bear flag pattern.

Currently, Bitcoin is attempting to break below the lower boundary of this channel near $82,371:

• Dynamic Resistance Clustered Above:BTC remains trapped beneath its 20-period Exponential Moving Average ( 20 EMA at $83,196) and 50-period EMA ( 50 EMA at $83,384). Rejection at these moving averages reinforces the prevailing short-term downtrend.

• 200 EMA Under Threat:Sellers are testing the crucial 200 EMA at $82,046. A sustained 4-hour close below this long-term trendline would confirm the flag breakdown.

• Subdued RSI Momentum:The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 42.09, pointing downward and indicating that sellers maintain control without reaching oversold conditions.

• Positioning Risk:The perpetual funding rate stands at a modest 0.0035%. A breach of key support risks unwinding leveraged long positions, speeding up a move lower.