Coinbase Rebounds 9% as Goldman Calls It “Best-Positioned” for the Binance Exodus

Key Takeaways

• Coinbase rose 9% today after Goldman Sachs named it, Robinhood and BitGo "best-positioned" for customers leaving Binance after a $6.3 billion hack.

• Goldman also called the hack a net negative, with Coinbase among the most exposed.

• The nearly $20 billion leaving Binance is small next to Coinbase's customer assets, so lower crypto activity matters more.

• Circle's Nov. 4 report is the next read on USDC balances, which drive about a quarter of Coinbase's revenue.

Coinbase Global ( COIN:NASDAQ )is up 9% today after Goldman Sachs called it one of the "best-positioned" firms for customers fleeing Binance.

Goldman's analysts put Robinhood Markets ( HOOD:NASDAQ )and BitGo in the same group. They see Circle Internet Group ( CRCL:NYSE ), the issuer of USDC, taking a smaller hit than Coinbase.

The catch

Binance disclosed the $6.3 billion hack last week. Nearly $20 billion, 14% of its platform assets, has left since.

Goldman sees wider damage, though:

"Overall, we view this event as a negative for our digital assets coverage, specifically in terms of lower cryptoasset balances, and potentially lower crypto trading volumes and stablecoin balances," the analysts wrote.

Coinbase is among the most exposed, since custody, staking and trading make up most of its revenue.

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$20 billion only goes so far

Even if all of it landed at Coinbase, it would add less than a tenth to the $245.9 billion of customer assets it held at the end of June.

How much crypto gets traded and held matters more, and analysts already expect a loss this year:

After Goldman's note, analysts have more reason to cut those estimates than to raise them. Quarterly revenue has roughly halved since late 2024:

Robinhood has less to lose

Robinhood gets the same tailwind with far less riding on crypto. Its crypto revenue fell 55% to $120 million in the third quarter. That's under a tenth of its $1.42 billion total, and total revenue still rose 12%. Any Binance customers it wins are mostly upside.

Circle is closer to Coinbase's problem. Coinbase earned $307 million of stablecoin revenue in the third quarter , about a quarter of its total, so if USDC balances shrink, both companies feel it. Circle reports on Wednesday, Nov. 4, and its balances since the hack matter for Coinbase too.