Quick Read
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MSTR posted GAAP EPS of $45, crushing the $18 consensus, yet shares dropped 6% premarket as Bitcoin sits 38% below its all-time high.
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MARA holds just 36,000 BTC and trades at 0.80x book versus Strategy's 1.94x, reflecting the premium investors pay for Strategy's capital-raising machine.
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The 24/7 Wall St. price target for Strategy Inc.( NASDAQ:MSTR ) is $272.05. That means 92.1% upside from the $141.62 close. Our model gives the stock a buy rating at moderate confidence of 50%.
24/7 Wall St. Price Target Summary
| Metric |
Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price |
$141.62 |
| Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. |
$272.05 |
| Upside/Downside |
92.1% |
| Recommendation |
BUY |
| Confidence Level |
50% |
Shares were indicated at $132.67 premarket, down 6.32%, after a record quarter. Bitcoin(CRYPTO:BTC) trades at $77,669, which is 38.4% below its all-time high. Per-share bitcoin growth now has to keep pace with dilution and rising preferred dividends.
A $44.75 EPS Quarter Arrives as Bitcoin Cools
Strategy Inc. posted GAAP diluted EPS of $44.75, beating the $17.98 consensus, on a $20.91B digital asset gain as bitcoin rose 43% in the quarter. Revenue of $125.43M missed the $129.36M estimate. The stock rose 51.64% from July 1 through October 29.
It is now down 14.22% over one month and 12.69% year to date, and it trades between a 52-week low of $81.81 and a high of $276.32. Bloomberg described the company's move to daily preferred payments as a push to jumpstart its funding machine.
Why Bulls See $300 and Beyond
The bull scenario reaches $301.96. Holdings stand at 848,517 BTC. USD Assets of $5.07B cover 3.4 years of obligations, and Strategy Inc. controls 84% of a $16B Digital Credit market. Interest income rose to $47.1M from $0.1M.
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The CEO called daily dividends "a natural step toward the tokenized, 24/7/365 financial system." Of the analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy, 2 Strong Buy and 1 Hold.
Dilution and Dividends Will Decide the Next Leg
The bear case is $212.52. BTC Yield is -3.7% year to date, a BTC Gain of -24,947 BTC. Preferred dividends rose to $419.6 million from $139.9 million, and Strategy Inc. sold about $431.8M of bitcoin.
A CFO transition adds risk. Bulls would counter that much of that capital went to $2.04B of STRC buybacks at an average of $97.39. Those repurchases were a deliberate move to repair the credit position.
How Strategy Inc. Compares to Coinbase and MARA
Coinbase( NASDAQ:COIN ) goes here because its GAAP results also inflate in crypto rallies. Its Q3 EPS of $2.51 included $715 million of crypto gains, and adjusted net income was only $77.7 million. At a $35.78B market cap, Coinbase is smaller than Strategy Inc.'s $57.2B.
MARA Holdings( NASDAQ:MARA ) is a direct bitcoin-holder contrast. It holds 35,577 BTC and trades at 0.80x book, versus 1.94x for Strategy Inc. The market pays a premium for Strategy Inc.'s capital-raising machine. Even so, a 2x book multiple keeps our target reasonable relative to peers.
Our Verdict: A Higher-Beta Way to Own Bitcoin
The 24/7 Wall St. price target is $272.05, with a buy rating at 50% confidence. The ability to raise capital is the key factor.
The upside case strengthens if bitcoin stabilizes and BTC Yield turns positive. The downside risk increases if dividends keep driving bitcoin sales. At current levels, our model projects upside that outweighs the volatility.
Assuming current trends hold, here is where the 24/7 Wall St. price target model projects the stock could trade.
| Year |
Price Target from 24/7 Wall St. |
|---|---|
| 2026 |
$149.42 |
| 2027 |
$272.05 |
| 2028 |
$360.62 |
| 2029 |
$478.02 |
| 2030 |
$633.64 |
These projections assume Strategy Inc. keeps executing its plan. A prolonged bitcoin downturn or a shutdown of preferred funding markets could drove results well below this path.
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Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections.
