XRP Price Forecast: A 13% Drop Likely Despite Evernorth Treasury Merger

XRP ( XRP ) could fall about 13% toward $1.30 in the coming sessions, even as the upcoming Evernorth merger strengthens the token's longer-term institutional investment case.

The token was trading near $1.50 on Oct. 6, consolidating inside a descending triangle on its four-hour chart. The setup suggests short-term downside risks remain elevated despite growing excitement around Evernorth, an XRP treasury company preparing to go public through its merger with Armada Acquisition Corp. II.

I remain constructive on XRP's broader outlook. In my Oct. 2 analysis , I highlighted a recurring long-term technical fractal that could support a 125% rally toward $3.40-$3.50if historical patterns repeat.

For now, however, XRP may correct before that bullish scenario develops.

XRP Descending Triangle Puts $1.30 in Focus

XRP has formed a series of lower highs since peaking above $1.60 in late September, while repeatedly finding support around $1.46-$1.47.

That combination has created a descending triangle, a structure typically resolved when price decisively breaks below horizontal support.

XRP is now trading near the pattern's apex, with its short-term moving averages converging around spot price. Its 20-period and 50-period four-hour exponential moving averages sit near $1.50, while the 100-period EMA is around $1.49.

Meanwhile, the four-hour relative strength index is near 52, showing neither buyers nor sellers have a clear momentum advantage.

A decisive four-hour close below the $1.46-$1.47 support area, preferably alongside rising trading volume, would confirm the bearish setup.

The triangle's maximum height is approximately $0.18, measured from its roughly $1.64 top to $1.46 support. Subtracting that distance from the breakdown point produces a downside objective near $1.28-$1.30.

That would amount to a roughly 13% decline from current levels.

The first meaningful downside obstacle sits around the 200-H EMA (green) near $1.44.

Conversely, a break above the triangle's descending resistance near $1.51-$1.52would weaken the bearish scenario and could put $1.55 and eventually $1.60 back in focus.

Why the Evernorth Merger Could Still Be Bullish for XRP

The short-term technical risks contrast sharply with developments surrounding Evernorth.

On Sept. 30, Armada II shareholders approved the merger, with the transaction expected to close on Oct. 7. The combined company is expected to begin trading on Nasdaq under the ticker XRPN on Oct. 8.

Evernorth expects to hold approximately 473 million XRPat closing, which would make it the largest publicly traded pure-play XRP treasury company. The transaction is also expected to generate approximately $300 million in gross cash proceeds, alongside XRP contributed directly by investors.