Quick Read
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Lilly brings 5 consecutive EPS beats to Oct 29 earnings, but Q3 estimates dropped from $9.87 to $6.67 due to acquired IPR&D charges.
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Lilly says Zepbound outperformed Wegovy HD on weight loss, though Novo Nordisk's pricing moves remain a real margin risk.
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Ricks said Lilly has "all the clinical data we need to submit" for retatrutide, with manufacturing work remaining before its BLA filing.
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Eli Lilly( NYSE:LLY ) reports third-quarter results on October 29. It brings a streak of 5 consecutive EPS beats and a stock that has run hard into the report. I'm watching three catalysts that could keep the rally going.
Record Growth Meets Sliding EPS Estimates
Last quarter, revenue rose 47.7% to $22.97 billion, topping estimates by 11.06%. Non-GAAP EPS of $8.38 beat the $6.5845 consensus, even after $3.03 per share of acquired IPR&D charges.
Mounjaro sales climbed 91% to $9.94 billion, and Zepbound grew 46% to $4.93 billion. Management raised 2026 revenue guidance for the second time, to $85 billion to $87 billion.
Since then, shares gained 10.64% over the past month and 19.07% year to date. Q3 EPS estimates went the other way. They fell to $6.6684 from $9.8749 a month ago, with 7 downward revisions against 3 upward. That decline matches Lilly's deal flow since Q2, because its non-GAAP EPS absorbs acquired IPR&D.
Wall Street's Q3 and Full-Year Bar
| Metric |
Q3 2026 Consensus |
YoY Growth |
FY2026 Consensus |
YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Normalized EPS |
$6.6684 |
-5.0% |
$34.5858 |
42.9% |
| Revenue |
$22.62 billion |
28.5% |
$88.68 billion |
36.1% |
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Guidance, Pricing, and the Pill Will Set the Tone
1. Another guidance raise.Full-year revenue consensus of $88.68 billion already sits above the top of Lilly's range. I'll be watching whether international tirzepatide demand, which drove 172% international Mounjaro growth in Q2 after China's NRDL inclusion, supports a third raise.
2. Volume outrunning price.U.S. price fell 9% excluding rebate adjustments last quarter. CFO Lucas Montarce said on the Q2 call, "We're going to more than offset that with volume growth." The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program expanded access to Lilly's obesity medicines by 35%, so you should look for that lift in Zepbound volumes.
3. Foundayo and retatrutide.Foundayo generated $98 million in its launch quarter, and management said late-July volume was "almost doubling" from a month earlier. Retatrutide targets a U.S. BLA submission in Q1 2027. CEO David Ricks said Lilly has "all the clinical data we need to submit," with manufacturing (CMC) work remaining, so any timeline update matters.
Competition remains intense. Lilly says Zepbound delivered more weight loss than Novo Nordisk( NYSE:NVO )'s Wegovy HD in an indirect comparison. Even so, Novo's pricing moves are a real risk to margins.
A Two-Drug Giant Needs Its Next Act
Mounjaro and Zepbound produced $14.9 billion combined last quarter, so Lilly's roughly $1.135 trillion valuation leans heavily on tirzepatide. Beats can still disappoint. In Q2 2025, Lilly topped EPS estimates and shares fell 14.14% on report day. If management shows Foundayo scaling and retatrutide moving toward approval, I think this report can show that Lilly's growth reaches well beyond its current blockbusters.
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