Quick Read
-
SPY sits 3% off its all-time high, yet Goldman trader Bobby Molavi says about 60% of S&P 500 members are in a "hidden" bear market.
-
Oracle has plunged 50% from its 52-week high while the Magnificent Seven have shed about $4 trillion in market value since October 15.
-
RSP surged nearly 5% in October while SPY fell 1%, as consumer staples jumped 11% and technology dropped 8%.
-
Just released. Our analysts combed the entire stock market and named the ten best stocks to buy right now, and Microsoft didn't make the cut. Enter your email to see the names that beat MSFT. The report is free. Enter your email and see if any of your stocks made the cut.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,568.92 on November 3, 2026, up 0.36%, leaving it 3.2% below its October 6 all-time close. In a client note reported the same day, Bobby Molavi, a Goldman Sachs trader and head of execution services for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said about 60% of index members are in a bear market.
He called it a "hidden" bear market. The comment came from one trader's note to clients and is separate from Goldman's formal research forecasts.
A bear market is a drop of at least 20% from a high, and the choice of high determines the answer. Molavi's benchmark was not published. The figure holds when measured from all-time highs, which can be years old, while a one-year measure captures only about a third of members.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust( NYSEARCA:SPY ) rose 0.30% to $754.35, while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF( NYSEARCA:RSP ) slipped 0.33% to $219.26. After hours, SPY traded at $751.99 and RSP at $219.01.
Our Count Puts the Bear Share Just Under 60%
We checked 502 members at November 3 closes. 289 of them, or 57.6%, sit at least 20% below their all-time highs, with a median gap of 23.5%.
Free Report, Just Released
Why Didn't MSFT Make The Top 10 List?
24/7 Wall St has helped investors make money for over two decades, and our top analysts just finished ranking the definitive Top 10 Stocks To Buy Now . Not the ten biggest companies. Not the ten everyone is arguing about. The ten best stocks to buy right now.
And MSFT didn't make the cut!
The report is free, and you can see why we think each stock is a top investment today.
Enter Your Email and See the Ten →
Against 52-week highs, only 169 members, or 33.7%, qualify, and the median gap shrinks to 13.4%. Still, 61% are at least 10% below their one-year highs, which is correction territory.
Truist( NYSE:TFC ) shows the split. It closed at $49.41, 12.1% below its 52-week high but 28.3% below its all-time high of $68.95.
Molavi's puzzle is that the big AI spenders and the companies receiving that money are falling together. Both are off: Oracle( NYSE:ORCL ) sits 50% below its 52-week high, while Microsoft( NASDAQ:MSFT ) sits just 5.5% below its own. The Magnificent Seven have shed about $4 trillion in market value since October 15.
Why SPY and RSP Diverge
SPY weights members by market value, with its largest holding alone carrying 7.58% of assets. RSP gives every member a small, similar share, so it tracks the typical stock.
A count published October 30 tracked the index's advance from its March 30 bottom. It found ten firms produced about 70%.
In October, RSP rose 4.95% while SPY fell 0.91%, as technology fell 8.30% and consumer staples jumped 10.94%. That rotation is why the average stock beat the index.
RSP closed 1.28% below its August 26 high close of $222.11. SPY sits 3.18% under its record close of $779.09.
Most Members Are Still Rising
Over the past month, 72.1% of members rose, with a median gain of 7.09%. This year, 67.5% are up, with a median gain of 9.34%.
Both readings hold because a stock far below an old peak can rally for a month and still count in the bear tally. The VIX, Wall Street's fear gauge, rose to 21.15 on November 2, a level that signals high uncertainty.
ADP employment and ISM services data arrive Wednesday, November 4. October's employment numbers arrive Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
What Could Decide the SPY and RSP Gap Next
SPY concentrates its weight in the companies with the most earnings power. But an index fund leans on a few giants, and a small gap from the record can coexist with sharp declines among most other members, which is the uncomfortable pattern we walk through in a free handbook on riding a market near its highs without getting caught when it turns.
RSP has offered broader exposure this year. It is up 14.07% this year on price, ahead of SPY's 10.01%, and it relies less on mega caps, although it tends to lag when those giants rally.
Should RSP close above $222.11 before SPY regains $779.09, broader participation is winning and the equal-weight approach gains support.
Got $1,000? Before You Buy MSFT, Read This
If you have cash sitting in your account right now, give this two minutes. After more than two decades of helping investors beat the market, our top analysts at 24/7 Wall St. put together a definitive report on the Top 10 Stocks To Buy Today. And MSFT wasn't one of them.
They combed the entire market. It's not 10 ideas, not 10 stocks everyone is talking about, it's what their research points to as the 10 best stocks to buy right now, and it's free. Read more here and see which stocks made the list -->>
Contact editorial@247wallst.com for any questions or corrections.
