Alligo stock closed at SEK111.8 on Friday after a tough stretch, with the price down about 17% over the past three months. Q3 2026 earnings landed with solid, if unspectacular, trading numbers as the group delivered SEK2,315m in revenue and SEK1.84 in basic earnings per share.
In the short term, the market is still focused on that weak share chart. Over a longer horizon, the focus shifts to earnings momentum and a trailing P/E of 15.8, which is below both the European trade distributors sector average and key peers.
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Q3 2026 Earnings Summary
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Revenue (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025):SEK 2,315m vs. SEK 2,189m (up about 5.8%)
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Net Income (Excl. Extra Items, Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025):SEK 92m vs. SEK 82m (up about 12.2%)
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Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs Q3 2025):SEK 1.84 vs. SEK 1.64 (up about 12.2%)
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Trailing 12M Net Profit Margin (Q3 2026 vs prior year):3.5% vs. 2.6% (margin higher year on year)
Finland is booming while Sweden and Norway are dragging margins. Ask Charlie what Alligo must fix in Sweden and Norway .
Alligo bull case: execution progress, but mixed proof
The bullish pitch around Alligo hinges on operational projects actually freeing up earnings power rather than just consuming time and capital.
"The company has completed its major integration and ERP/platform harmonization projects, freeing up organizational bandwidth to focus on sales and efficiency improvements; this should drive operating leverage and improve EBITDA and net earnings as sales growth returns."
Q3 showed some of that thesis working. Organic growth turned slightly positive at 1.1% and EBITA rose 6%, helped by Finland's margin recovery and cost work. Yet group gross margin slipped and Sweden and Norway underdelivered, so operating leverage is only partly visible so far.
Alligo bear case: concentration and leverage risks re-checked
The bear story argues that weak organic growth, country mix and leverage could mute any operational wins at Alligo.
"Rising net debt (now at SEK 2.1 billion, net debt/EBITDA at 3.2x) due to a combination of acquisition pace and declining operating cash flow increases financial risk; elevated leverage during market uncertainty may constrain future growth initiatives and impact earnings."
Latest numbers point in a different direction on this specific risk. Net debt stands at SEK 1.6b and net debt/EBITDA at 2.2, with SEK 1.9b of available liquidity. Cash flow is seasonally soft in Q3 and inventory built ahead of Q4, yet leverage has eased rather than tightened.
One Narrative disagrees with today's price. → See where this Narrative says Alligo should trade .
Hunt Quiet Dislocations In Quality
Alligo shows how sentiment and valuation can drift away from recent earnings progress. The real opportunity could sit in stocks where fundamentals and pricing are still misaligned.
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Company 1 - 38% below our estimate - refocuses investment and creative resources on core regional fans after stretching too thin into less familiar audiences.
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Company 2 - 41% below our estimate - grows transaction platforms that lenders and insurers plug into once legacy mortgage and policy systems start to constrain volumes.
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Company 3 - 49% below our estimate - builds an integrated metals chain that expands after acquiring new mines and smelters from a regional peer.
Those are three of them. See every one of the 195 undervalued companies on it →
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Companies discussed in this article include ALLIGO-B.ST .
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