Quick Read
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NVIDIA, Anthropic's compute partner, has dropped 21% in a month, while the Invesco QQQ Trust sits down 8% for the week, handing buyers leverage.
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Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lead 22 underwriting banks, while retail investors get a slice through six brokers including Fidelity.
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Anthropic's IPO is still missing a price range, share count and raise amount, with the roadshow timing for the week of Nov. 16 in question.
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Anyone planning to request Anthropic shares through a brokerage app this month just got a reason to read the fine print first. Three major investors plan to take part in the offering. They told The Wall Street Journal the valuation would likely need to come down, according to AFP. One of them told The Wall Street Journal it could end up closer to $1 trillion. That compares with the $1.5 trillion target The Wall Street Journal said the company had been aiming for. A different investor raised the idea of postponing the listing completely. Both views are investor sentiment reported before pricing. Anthropic has yet to set a price range or announce any delay.
How One Brutal Thursday Handed Buyers the Leverage
The pushback came right after a sharp selloff. Companies in the NASDAQ Composite lost $2.5 trillion in market value on Nov. 5, AFP reported. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's fear gauge, rose to 28.18 that day from 16.61 the session before. The Invesco QQQ Trust( NASDAQ:QQQ ) traded at $658.11 as of 2:38 PM ET Friday. That left it up 1.71% intraday but down 8% over the past week.
NVIDIA( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is Anthropic's compute partner. Under their deal, Anthropic will initially adopt 1 gigawatt of Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems. NVIDIA traded at $186.64 late Friday and is down 21.4% over the past month, even with Friday's 2.78% rebound. When the AI trade's anchor stock falls that far, institutions gain room to demand a lower entry price.
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What Anthropic Wanted, and Where the Deal Stands Now
According to AFP, Anthropic had been expected to raise up to $100 billion. That would make it the largest IPO on record, ahead of the $86 billion AFP says SpaceX( NASDAQ:SPCX ) raised in June. The target was the week of Nov. 16. Dealroom, referencing earlier Journal reporting, said some investors spoke of a $2 trillion debut earlier this year. That talk had cooled before this week.
Stock Titan's reading of the amended S-1 filed Nov. 2 shows the price range, share count and amount raised still blank. FinanceFeeds reports the listing is proposed for the NASDAQ Global Select Market under the symbol ANT, and Reuters reported questions about whether the roadshow can start on schedule. The Journal said a smaller offering is also possible. Anthropic declined to comment to Reuters.
Numbers Driving the Valuation Fight
FinanceFeeds puts the last private valuation at $965 billion, from the May Series H round. Stock Titan reports revenue of $17.0 billion from July to September, more than 12 times the same months a year earlier. Stock Titan also reports a nine-month net loss of $104.0 billion. Most of that stems from a $94.3 billion paper charge linked to the rising value of convertible notes. Purchase commitments and leases total about $895.4 billion, per FinanceFeeds. Cash figures vary by outlet: Stock Titan referencing $131.8 billion, while Investing.com, referencing the Journal, referencing $146.6 billion.
OpenAI's experience shows how fast the mood has changed. Per Investing.com referencing the Journal, it secured just $11 billion of a targeted $30 billion round at an adjusted $1.25 trillion valuation. It has also pressed its listing plans into next year. Riding an AI mania is fine. You just need to plan the exit, which is the whole point of our free bubble survivor's handbook.
Why the Final Terms Matter for Your Account
Stock Titan says part of the offering will go to regular investors through six brokers, including Fidelity. Goldman Sachs( NYSE:GS ) and Morgan Stanley( NYSE:MS ) lead 22 underwriting banks. Big funds talk terms the price, and individual buyers take that price as given, since a lower valuation means paying less for the same revenue and the same commitments. A smaller deal could mean fewer shares for retail, and a delay leaves cash waiting while the market resets.
Three signals to watch: whether Anthropic files a price range, whether the week of Nov. 16 holds, and whether the offering size shrinks.
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