Investing.com -- Stainless steelmaker Aperam SA (AS:APAM) said on Tuesday it expects third-quarter core earnings to fall from the previous quarter, as weak European demand and higher energy costs offset seasonally stronger activity in Brazil.
Aperam expects third-quarter adjusted EBITDA to come in below the €130 million reported in the second quarter, but slightly above the €90 million recorded in the first quarter. The company-compiled consensus is €113 million.
Lower seasonal demand in Europe is being partly offset by stronger activity in Brazil across its Stainless, Recycling and Services & Solutions businesses. However, higher energy costs are expected to reduce EBITDA by about €20 million per quarter.
Underlying demand in Europe remains weak, with order books showing no meaningful improvement, Aperam said. Activity is picking up after the summer holiday period in Europe, while Brazil is expected to slow after a seasonally strong quarter.
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Aperam's Alloys & Specialties business is operating at full capacity following planned summer maintenance, with demand particularly strong in LNG, electrical and electronics, and aerospace.
European trade protection measures that took effect on July 1 are expected to have a limited impact in the third quarter, as much of the benefit from customers bringing forward orders was already captured in the first half and volumes are seasonally low. The EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism is also being phased in gradually.
Aperam expects no additional support from valuation effects in the quarter. Net financial debt is expected to remain broadly flat at the end of September, with the company still on track to end 2026 below its 2025 year-end debt level.
The company expects further savings from its Leadership Journey programme, which targets €150 million of gains between 2026 and 2028. The programme contributed €38 million in the first half of 2026, with further gains expected in the third quarter.
Aperam said its guidance for adjusted EBITDA, cash flow and net debt assumes stable commodity prices and therefore does not include potential effects from ongoing energy price swings.
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