A RH (NYSE:RH) aus (NASDAQ: A RH (NYSE:RH) S) saw web traffic rise 84% year on year in September as Jefferies set a $12 price target, implying near 20% upside.
Web traffic for the third quarter rose more than 60% year on year, an acceleration on both one-year and two-year bases, while engagement has stayed above average since Jefferies upgraded the shares in mid-September.
Traffic growth in September ran more than 50 percentage points ahead of peers including RH, Design Within Reach, Perigold and Pottery Barn, against a gap of more than 30 points in August.
Jefferies has not seen a spread of that size versus peers in years, and attributes the gain to a much larger mailing list for the fall catalog and more digital marketing.
The bank expects the distribution list for the spring catalog, due for delivery in late December, to be at least 75% larger than a year earlier, given the return on investment it sees.
Jefferies raised its fourth-quarter earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) estimate by about 2%, and its 2027 EBITDA forecast sits more than 6% above the consensus of analysts.
It forecasts 2026 earnings per share of $0.55, after $0.02 in the first quarter and $0.28 in the second, with $0.09 and $0.17 expected in the third and fourth quarters.
K.C. Moss, the recently appointed chief digital officer, has yet to join Arhaus, so the current level of engagement predates her arrival, and Jefferies expects her e-commerce track record to help.
The $12 target also applies a multiple of about 20 times 2027 earnings per share, reflecting the premium Arhaus has earned over peers during the past three years.
