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How TELUS stock has been performing

TELUS (TSX:T) has delivered mixed returns for shareholders, with the stock up around 0.2% over the past day and 0.6% over the past week, while the past year shows a decline of 16.1%.

Over longer holding periods, TELUS shares are also in negative territory, with total returns down about 19.4% over the past 3 years and 14.2% over the past 5 years, and year to date lower by 4.9%.

In the shorter term, performance has been more resilient, with the stock showing a gain of 1.7% over the past month, even as the past 3 months reflect an 8.1% decline, underlining how timing has mattered for recent TELUS investors.

See our latest analysis for TELUS.

Overall, TELUS has combined a softer 1 year total shareholder return of 16.1% with some recent stability, as the 1 month share price return has moved into positive territory from earlier 2024 weakness.

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So with TELUS shares weaker over the past year yet showing some recent stability, and with tools suggesting a potential gap between price and estimated value, is there a genuine opportunity here or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 17.1% Undervalued

With TELUS last closing at about CA$17.11 against a narrative fair value of CA$20.65, the current price sits well below that estimate. This puts the focus firmly on what is driving that gap.

Sustained investment in network modernization, with a $2B commitment to expand broadband in key markets and asset monetization through the Terrion tower partnership, should drive high incremental returns, operational efficiencies, and deleveraging, resulting in improving free cash flow and net margin expansion as capital intensity moderates.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what is behind this fair value call? The narrative leans heavily on gradual revenue growth, firmer margins, and a richer earnings multiple that depends on those forecasts holding up.

Result: Fair Value of CA$20.65 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, you also need to weigh risks, including intense competition pressuring wireless ARPU, and TELUS's high capital spending and debt potentially limiting financial flexibility.