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Why Aurubis Is On Investors' Radar Today

Aurubis (XTRA:NDA) is back in focus after recent trading left the share price around €154, with a return of about 77% over the past year and an intrinsic discount near 27%.

See our latest analysis for Aurubis.

While the recent month has brought a 9.09% decline in the share price, Aurubis still shows strong momentum with a 27.27% 3 month share price return and a 76.87% 1 year total shareholder return. This sits alongside that indicated intrinsic discount.

If Aurubis has you thinking about copper and related materials, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with other producers via the 8 top copper producer stocks

With Aurubis trading around €154 and sitting on a 27% indicated intrinsic discount, but also a strong multi year total return record, are you looking at an undervalued copper recycler or has the market already priced in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 61.4% Overvalued

The most followed narrative puts Aurubis' fair value at about €95.43, well below the recent €154 share price, and builds that gap on specific assumptions about future margins and earnings power.

The company's high investment in strategic growth projects has elevated capital employed, depressing ROCE below target levels, with much of these investments (e.g., Richmond) not expected to contribute materially for one to two years and ramp-up costs weighing on near-to-mid-term earnings, cash flow and margin expansion are likely to lag optimistic forecasts.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how this story connects heavy capex, thinner margins, and a richer future earnings multiple to justify today's valuation gap? The key assumptions tie slower profit trends, modest revenue growth and a higher future P/E to that fair value line.

Result: Fair Value of €95.43 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are still a few things that could change this view, including smoother project execution and the Richmond ramp up translating into stronger earnings resilience.

Find out about the key risks to this Aurubis narrative.

Another Angle On Aurubis' Valuation

The narrative model points to Aurubis being about 61.4% overvalued at a fair value of €95.43, yet its current P/E of 11.1x looks low compared to peers at 26.6x and a fair ratio of 13.6x. So is the share price stretched, or is the market underpricing earnings power?