The Morning Bull - Australian Market Morning Update Thursday, 29 Oct 2026
Australian shares are set for a mildly positive open, with SPI 200 futures edging higher. The single clear driver this morning is fresh Q3 trade price data, which points to stronger export pricing power alongside cheaper imported inputs.
Export prices rose 1.4% in Q3, with natural and manufactured gas up 28.6% and coal up 4.8%. Import prices slipped 1.1% over the quarter, helped by an 8.7% fall in petroleum products. That mix supports margins for domestic producers while underpinning Australia's trade position.
Higher prices for key resource shipments lift revenue potential for exporters. At the same time, softer import costs can ease pressure on companies that rely on fuel and overseas inputs, which matters for both earnings resilience and investment plans.
The open question is how this trade friendly backdrop feeds into inflation and the next read on producer prices. If tomorrow's Q3 PPI print runs hot, investors need to judge whether better margins today risk tighter policy settings later.
Stocks to Watch Before the Opening Bell
Neuren Pharmaceuticals (NEU)
Neuren Pharmaceuticals is back in focus after a 6.3% gain as traders position around two near term events. A European launch of Rett syndrome drug trofinetide, branded DAYBUE, follows European Commission marketing approval in August. The first European sale would trigger a US$35 million milestone payment to Neuren.
A separate US$50 million payment is tied to DAYBUE North American annual sales exceeding US$500 million, a level partner Acadia is reported to be close to. Investors tracking Neuren will be watching both that sales threshold and the pivotal Japan trial readout for further clarity on future cash inflows.
Turaco Gold (TCG)
Turaco Gold has locked in up to A$130 million of fresh equity at A$0.60 per share to consolidate 100% ownership of the Afema Gold Project and fund the next phase of work. The raise is led by a global long only resources fund and backed by existing institutions, with a planned Share Purchase Plan targeting up to A$10 million.
The acquisition lifts Turaco's attributable Afema Mineral Resource to 4.65 Moz and Probable Ore Reserve to 1.91 Moz. Management plans to use the proceeds for the US$79 million purchase package, a potential royalty buyback, pre FID work, and a Definitive Feasibility Study that is scheduled to complete in Q2 2027.
Bannerman Energy (BMN)
Bannerman Energy has reported a quarter that effectively funds the Etango uranium project through to commercial production. A US$320.4 million financing with CNNC Overseas Limited and a A$124 million institutional placement leave Etango fully financed, with CNOL holding 45% of the joint venture and Bannerman retaining 55%.
The Etango JV has already taken a positive Final Investment Decision and moved into full scale construction, targeting first production in 2028 with forecast output of about 3.5 million pounds of U3O8 a year. Investors watching Bannerman may focus on execution, with early works largely complete and substantial cash held at both Bannerman and the JV level.
Top Movers
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IperionX (ASX:IPX)jumped 16.67% after investors reacted to quarterly progress on titanium production capacity and defence contracts.
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New Murchison Gold (ASX:NMG)gained 8.47% after extending Crown Prince with a high grade gold intersection at depth.
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Star Entertainment Group (ASX:SGR)rose 7.69% after updates on earnings recovery, cash flow trends, and regulatory remediation progress.
Top Losers
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Champion Iron (ASX:CIA)declined 17.26% after FY2027 Q2 results showed lower sales and a shift to net loss.
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Mader Group (ASX:MAD)fell 10.71% following the resignation of CFO Paul Hegarty and the appointment of an interim replacement.
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Elevra Lithium (ASX:ELV)declined 9.38%.
On The Radar
Over the next few sessions the Australian market faces a tight cluster of rate decisions and inflation prints, capped by full year bank results that speak directly to funding costs and credit demand.
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Australia PPI QoQ (Q3), Fri 30 Oct. With consensus at 1% against a previous 1.3%, a softer producer price result would take some heat off local inflation pressures, while a stronger print would keep A$ funding and RBA expectations sensitive.
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US Core PCE, PCE and Q3 GDP, Thu 29 Oct. Core PCE at 0.3%, headline PCE at 0.5% and GDP consensus at 3.2% frame how tight US policy may need to stay. This in turn steers A$/US$ and global appetite for ASX risk.
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ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference, Thu 29 Oct. Markets expect policy to hold at 2.65%. Any signal away from that path would move euro bond yields and global rate benchmarks that feed directly into Australian discount rates and equity risk pricing.
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RBA Interest Rate Decision, Tue 3 Nov. The cash rate currently sits at 4.6% with forecasts pointing to 4.85%. Any change in the policy rate would flow through to mortgage costs, discretionary spending and local bank funding margins.
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Westpac Banking fiscal 2026 final results, Mon 2 Nov. The key focus is how net interest margins and loan growth in the core Australian banking franchise line up against higher funding costs, which matters for broader sentiment toward ASX financials.
Sector & Industry Watch
Energy: Strong year, taking a breather
Energy has eased over the past week, even though the year to date return remains strongly positive. Recent deals and updates in Oil and Gas, including Woodside's long term LNG contracts and project moves from smaller producers, show activity continuing underneath that short term pullback.
If you hold Energy, the practical link to your portfolio is fuel prices and cash flow. Keep an eye on US crude inventory data and how that feeds into local petrol costs, because sustained relief there can support margins for producers while easing pressure on household budgets.
Real Estate: REITs recover as cash flow holds up
Real Estate has been climbing over the past week and month despite weaker 1 year and year to date numbers. Updates from Dexus, BWP Trust, Vicinity Centres and Charter Hall Retail REIT point to high occupancy and active asset sales alongside ongoing refinancing work at today's higher interest rates.
For income focused investors, that combination of rent collection and balance sheet moves matters more than daily price swings. The key local lever now is the RBA decision because any change in the 4.6% cash rate filters quickly into borrowing costs, payout policies and how much yield the market demands from A REITs.
Financials and Banks: Credit still flowing, rates in focus
Financials and Banks have both moved higher over the past week, with the broader sector now slightly positive year to date. Trading updates from Perpetual, Pioneer Credit, BNK Banking and others show lending, securitisation deals and fee income still active as the market weighs a possible move from the RBA on top of the Fed's rate pause.
If you rely on bank dividends, watch Westpac's upcoming FY26 result and the RBA meeting in early November. Comments on bad debts, loan growth and funding costs will give a clearer read on how households are coping with higher repayments and how sustainable current payout levels look.
Tech: Bouncing hard after a tough year
Tech has picked up sharply over the past 7 and 30 days, even though the 1 year and year to date returns are still deeply negative. A run of quarterly updates from Spacetalk, Hydrix, AVA Risk Group, Xref, Data#3 and others shows revenue still coming through and cost cuts underway while global enthusiasm around AI keeps attention on digital infrastructure and software.
For holders of ASX Tech, the near term swing factor is less about headline index moves and more about cash burn and contract wins in each stock. When you skim results, focus on recurring revenue, funding runway and whether management is trimming costs fast enough to avoid dilutive capital raisings.
Consumer Discretionary: Rate sensitive names stay under pressure
Consumer Discretionary has slipped over the past week and remains weak over 1 year and year to date despite a stronger 30 day patch. News around Star Entertainment's fine, Accent Group's takeover tussle, and governance issues at Simonds Group underlines how tighter household budgets and regulatory scrutiny are shaping this sector.
If your portfolio includes retailers, auto groups or casinos, the 4.3% annual CPI print matters because higher essentials leave less room for optional spending. Trading updates that talk about weaker volumes or heavier discounting are useful early warning signs that consumers are pulling back on non essential purchases.
Don't Just Read The News, Use It
With the RBA cash rate sitting at 4.6% and another move on the table, income hunters who care about resilient payouts can start with this list of 4 dividend fortresses
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