The Morning Bull - Australian Market Morning Update Wednesday, 28 Oct 2026
Australian shares are set for a cautiously positive open, with sentiment dominated by stubborn local inflation. SPI 200 futures are slightly higher, and the market focus is squarely on what sticky prices mean for the next RBA move.
Headline CPI for Q3 is 3.9% year on year, with trimmed mean at 3.7%, both above the RBA target band. September inflation printed at 4.3% with monthly CPI at 0.8%, exceeding forecasts. Together, these figures reinforce that price pressures remain persistent.
Stubborn inflation keeps the risk of tighter policy alive, which can lift borrowing costs for households and highly leveraged businesses. That kind of backdrop often forces investors to reassess earnings sensitivity in interest rate exposed areas and to reward balance sheets with stronger pricing power.
The dilemma now is whether the RBA leans harder on policy or waits for more evidence from wages and growth. Upcoming PPI data on Friday adds another test and may challenge the current assumption that inflation pressure peaks with this quarter's numbers.
Stocks to Watch Before the Opening Bell
Star Entertainment Group (SGR)
A $260 million AUSTRAC penalty lands on Star Entertainment Group after serious anti money laundering and counter terrorism financing breaches at its Sydney and Gold Coast casinos. The fine is split into $195 million for Sydney and $65 million for the Gold Coast, with a 19 month payment plan. Readers should focus on cash flow pressure and any response from lenders and regulators.
oOh!media (OML)
The next step in the oOh!media takeover is close. A shareholder meeting on 2 November will vote on the proposed acquisition by OOH BidCo, controlled by I Squared Capital. If investors back the Scheme, a second court hearing on 4 November will consider final approval. The Scheme Booklet sets out terms, while any organised opposition must lodge court documents before that hearing.
Data#3 (DTL)
Data#3 has outlined record FY26 numbers at its AGM, with gross sales of A$3.4b and profit before tax of A$78.8 million. The technology reseller reports net profit after tax of A$54.5 million, a strong cash position of A$326 million and no debt. A large five year Microsoft contract with the Australian Government and a new AI and cybersecurity push are at the centre of its growth focus.
Top Movers
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Lindian Resources (ASX:LIN)surged 11.69% after investors assessed extensive Kangankunde rare earths progress and downstream SARECO developments.
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Aurelia Metals (ASX:AMI)jumped 10.26% after positive Cobar exploration results extended high grade copper and gold mineralisation zones.
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Boss Energy (ASX:BOE)climbed 9.96% alongside renewed interest in uranium producers during the broader resources sector rebound.
Top Losers
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BMC Minerals (ASX:BMC)fell 6.59% as investors weighed recent Kudz Ze Kayah drilling spend and capital outflows.
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4DMedical (ASX:4DX)declined 4.99% after strong AGM updates met profit and cash burn questions following elevated operating expenditure.
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Ampol (ASX:ALD)fell 3.75%.
On The Radar
Rate expectations and big bank earnings sit in the driver's seat, with RBA signals and Westpac results set to frame how Australian shares trade into next week.
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RBA Senate Appearance, Wed 28 Oct. Any emphasis on Q3 CPI at 3.9% and September inflation at 4.3% could harden views on policy staying restrictive, which tends to pressure rate sensitive stocks and support the A$ when language leans more hawkish than expected.
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Australia PPI QoQ, Fri 30 Oct. Producer prices are forecast at 1% for Q3 after 1.3% previously, and a print meaningfully above forecast would signal ongoing cost pressure for manufacturers and contractors, keeping focus on margins and future rate risk.
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RBA Interest Rate Decision, Tue 3 Nov. The cash rate currently sits at 4.6% with forecasts aligned at the same level. Any shift away from that consensus or tougher wording on inflation would directly affect bank funding costs, A$ moves and valuations for high duration growth stocks.
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Westpac Banking, Mon 2 Nov. Full year 2026 results put the spotlight on net interest margin and bad debt charges, which together show how a 4.6% cash rate setting is flowing through to big four bank profitability and capital flexibility.
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US Fed Interest Rate Decision, Wed 28 Oct. The target rate is expected to hold at 4%. Any change in guidance around future moves would ripple through bond yields, feeding into the A$ and sectors tied to global funding conditions such as REITs and infrastructure stocks.
Sector & Industry Watch
Real Estate: REITs steady as deals heat up
Real Estate has been climbing over the past week and month even though 1 year and year to date returns are still weaker. Activity around Ingenia Communities, where competing bids have pushed the stock into a takeover contest, and Dexus, which has issued multiple portfolio and legal updates, shows that capital is still flowing into property assets despite higher interest costs.
If you hold A REITs for income, focus on how board decisions and court outcomes affect asset sales, gearing and payout ratios rather than just day to day share moves.
Financials and Banks: Rate sensitive but pushing higher
Financials and Banks have both moved higher over the past week, with Banks advancing more strongly on that 7 day view while the year to date picture for the broader sector is modestly positive. Fresh information from BSP Financial Group, Insurance Australia Group and Wisr gives more colour on loan growth, funding costs and credit quality at a time when the RBA cash rate sits at 4.6%.
For investors who rely on bank dividends, the next signpost is how upcoming results and capital management moves balance shareholder returns against the need for thicker buffers if bad debts rise from here.
Materials and Metals and Mining: Resource stocks under pressure despite busy news
Materials and Metals and Mining have both declined over the past week and month, even though the 1 year returns are slightly positive and close to flat respectively year to date. The weakness comes alongside a surge in project news, from gold resource upgrades at Barton Gold and Turaco Gold through to copper and rare earth updates at Kantra Copper, Astron and others across the ASX.
If your portfolio leans toward iron ore, gold or battery metals, it can help to separate single project headlines from the sector wide trend of softer recent returns when judging how much exposure you want.
Energy and Oil and Gas: Strong year, taking a pause
Energy and Oil and Gas have slipped over the past 7 days after strong year to date gains for both sectors. Corporate moves such as Woodside Energy Group agreeing to sell its Greater Sunrise stake, Comet Ridge progressing the Mahalo gas hub, and smaller explorers like Greenvale Energy and Gulf Stream Energy updating drilling plans show a lot still happening beneath the short term price pause.
For holders of producers and fuel exposed stocks, the practical swing factor over the next few sessions is how global oil and gas data prints line up against these project updates, because that combination shapes revenue expectations as much as local headlines do.
Consumer Discretionary: Spending pockets vs higher rate headwinds
Consumer Discretionary has dipped slightly over the past week even though returns over the past month are stronger and the 1 year and year to date numbers remain weaker. Recent news from retailers and leisure groups including Universal Store, Star Entertainment Group, Accent Group and Reef Casino Trust highlights a mix of corporate activity, governance questions and balance sheet pressure at the same time as households deal with higher borrowing costs.
If you own retailers, auto stocks or entertainment companies, it is worth watching how upcoming earnings updates talk about volumes and discounting, because those details show whether consumers are trading down, delaying big purchases or still finding room for discretionary spend.
Where Are The Opportunities Now?
With the RBA cash rate at 4.6% and tighter policy still on the table, income focused investors can start by checking this list of 4 dividend fortresses .
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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