Unum GroupUNM is expected to register an improvement in its bottom line but a decline in the top line when it reports third-quarter 2026 results on Nov. 3, after the closing bell.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNM's third-quarter revenues is pegged at $2.96 billion, indicating a 12.5% decline from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $2.18 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for UNM's third-quarter earnings has moved north by 0.5% in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests a year-over-year increase of 4.3%.
What the Zacks Model Unveils for UNM
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Unum Group this time around. This is because the stock has the right combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold).
Earnings ESP: Unum Group has an Earnings ESP of +0.64%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $2.19 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.18. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Unum Group Price and EPS Surprise
Unum Group price-eps-surprise | Unum Group Quote
Zacks Rank: Unum Group currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Shape Q3 Results of UNM
Favorable persistency and better sales in the operating segments are likely to have favored premiums in the third quarter. Our estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate for premium income are both pegged at $2.6 billion.
Net investment income is likely to have increased primarily driven by higher invested assets and portfolio yields. Higher sales across its operating segments are also expected to have contributed to premium growth. Our estimate for investment income is pegged at $268 million, suggesting a 44% decrease from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $264 million.
The Unum U.S. segment is likely to have benefited from higher premiums in group disability and group life, supported by sales growth and favorable persistency. However, higher claim incidence in short-term disability, particularly paid family and medical leave products, could have weighed on group disability margins. We estimate Unum U.S. operating revenues at $2 billion
Colonial Life is likely to have benefited from higher sales, favorable claims experience and growth in premium income. Stronger performance in life, cancer and critical illness products, along with higher investment income, could have supported segment profitability. Persistency trends will also remain important for the segment. Our estimate for Colonial Life's operating revenues is $513 million.
Unum International's performance is likely to have remained under pressure from higher benefit costs and lower investment income. In the UK, higher average claim sizes in group long-term disability and lower income from inflation-linked bonds could have weighed on results. Lower sales and persistency in certain product lines may also have limited growth, partly offset by in-force block expansion. Our estimate for Unum International's operating revenues is pegged at $346.3 million.
Expenses are likely to have increased due to higher policy benefits, commissions, amortization of deferred acquisition costs, interest and debt expense, and other operating expenses.
Continued share buybacks are likely to have contributed to the bottom line.
Other Stocks to Consider
Some insurance stocks with the right combination of elements to deliver an earnings beat this time around are:
NMI Holdings, Inc.NMIH has an Earnings ESP of +0.88% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $1.77, indicating a year-over-year increase of 9.1%.
NMIH's earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
The Allstate CorporationALL has an Earnings ESP of +5.25% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $5.61, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 37.1%.
ALL's earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four reported quarters.
Palomar Holdings, Inc.PLMR has an Earnings ESP of +0.29% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter 2026 earnings is pegged at $2.60, indicating a year-over-year increase of 29.4%.
PLMR's earnings beat estimates in each of the last four reported quarters.
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Unum Group (UNM) : Free Stock Analysis Report
The Allstate Corporation (ALL) : Free Stock Analysis Report
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Palomar Holdings, Inc. (PLMR) : Free Stock Analysis Report
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).
